OTH | Policy

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Towards a Strategic Value Proposition: Redefining 21st Century Defense Priority Assessments

April 26, 2021April 25, 2021 Over The Horizon 0 Comments defense, Policy, strategic priorities, strategic value proposition, strategy

Abstract: U.S. strategic priorities are flawed. Measures of ‘strategic value’ are superficial and lack analytical depth. When asking academics, practitioners, and policymakers “What is the most strategically valuable region in the world?” we receive divergent answers. Then asking “How did you determine this value?” answers diverge further. We tend to assess strategic value on measures like gross domestic product and population. No doubt these are significant indicators, but are they the only indicators of relevance in determining the strategic value of one region relative to another? What other factors does the United States consider to inform strategic priorities? We argue that the U.S. applies more subjective than objective measure to assess strategic value and thus projects power on the basis of questionable logic. With that, we propose a new method to determine relative strategic value – the Strategic Value Proposition – that can reshape our military power projection thinking to address emerging security issues.

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Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Achieving Strategic Advantage (Part 2 of 2)

September 23, 2020January 18, 2021 Over The Horizon 1 Comment acquisition, AI, artificial intelligence, autonomy, china, cyber, decision making, doctrine, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, joint, Leadership, national security, NATO, Policy, risk, Russia, strategy, technology

Executive Summary: Our previous article on supply chain competition and warfare explained how political, economic, and security issues unleash and restrain strategies of competitive advantage. China is waging all-effects warfare. Meanwhile, democratic states and the US compete with a self-imposed disadvantage: inferior operating strategy at the strategic level of significance. How can we compete and when necessary, wage superior complex warfare in kind?

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Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Fundamentals of Strategic Advantage (Part 1 of 2)

September 18, 2020January 18, 2021 Over The Horizon 1 Comment acquisition, AI, artificial intelligence, autonomy, china, cyber, decision making, doctrine, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, joint, Leadership, national security, NATO, Policy, risk, Russia, strategy, technology

Executive Summary: In the hands of authoritarian powers, supply chains are systematically weaponized into broad warfare that subsumes democracies’ traditionally narrow military approach. This series analyzes supply chain competition, warfare, and strategy in two parts. Part I discusses fundamentals that set strategic parameters for achieving an “all-effects” advantage: globalization and protectionism; strategies of national security; incentives and risks; and political and technological change. This broad perspective on competition and warfare is necessary to implement the cooperative and confrontational competition prescribed in the US National Security Strategy. Part II identifies decisions and makes recommendations to combine superior “all-effects” using diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and social instruments of power. This integrative perspective is necessary to synergize strategic advantages derived from the US National Defense Strategy and sixteen other national security-related strategies.

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Métis: Strategic Sense for a Wicked World

July 13, 2020September 25, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment air force, army, command and control, culture, Design, human domain, Information Operations, intelligence, joint, mission command, navy, planning, Policy, strategy

Abstract: The U.S. defense community regularly acknowledges changes in the character of modern warfare. These observations are often coupled with a variety of recommendations, such as creating more strategic thinkers and cultivating more agile service cultures. This article highlights the tangled interactions between these two challenges as well as a third: harnessing the power of storytelling. First, stories both reflect and influence an organization’s culture, and are therefore a useful tool for strategic thinkers. Second, when it comes to strategic thinking, the typical descriptions and illustrations used by defense professionals are incomplete and biased. Missing from this list of examples, for instance, is someone from the origins of Western civilization who personified the wisdom to convert “insight into a decisive asymmetry.” This ancient role model not only exemplifies the strategic sense necessary to prepare the joint force’s culture for modern operating environments, but is also closely linked to the third element of this trinity – storytelling.

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Deepening the Cut: How China’s Genetic Warfare is Affecting International Relations

May 26, 2020June 14, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments air force, biology, Bioweapons, china, genetics, Policy, science

Gene editing is relatively new territory and is stretching to greater lengths than ever before. What continues to puzzle policymakers and global leaders—despite the expressed benefits—is just how far gene editing experimentation will go. Future developments will ultimately affect the earth’s entire population and international affairs. This article provides a historical context of biological warfare and shifts towards understanding the contemporary dangers of biological-genetic warfare, which are being advanced to dangerous heights by China.

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Human-led Machine Learning & Advanced Threats: Case Method Inquiry and Visual Analytics Applied to COVID-19

March 26, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment A2AD, acquisition, AI, airpower, analysis, Analytics, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, COVID, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, multi-domain operations, national security, Nodal, Nodal Analysis, node, Pandemic, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology

In a pervasive and complex information environment, analytics are vital to understanding advanced threats. As we rely more on machine-learnt results, asking the right questions and visualizing deep analysis are key to grasping and solving problems. These skills are also vital 21st century leadership tools that can forge a common focus among otherwise stove-piped specialists.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents an urgent threat that requires both scientific understanding and decisive leadership. The cause of the disease is SARS CoV-2, a mutating virus that thrives in conditions difficult to control at scale. To counter this threat, this article demonstrates in detail the potential of human-led case method and machine-provided visual analytics.

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Artificial Intelligence in the Operational Information Environment: The Need for Proactive Doctrine

February 26, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments A2AD, ACE, acquisition, ACS, Agile Combat Employment, Agile Combat Support, AI, air force, airpower, army, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, joint, Leadership, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, mission command, Multi Domain, multi-domain operations, national security, OODA Loop, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, usaf

Joint operations doctrine omits the agency of artificial intelligence (AI) in the operational information environment, which is a problem. This commentary discusses why, and recommends effective changes. Key points are as follows. AI is becoming an autonomous cause of unanticipated effects. Humans are not the most effectively intelligent actors in all environments, yet our doctrine draws lessons from the past rather than anticipating emergent futures. Machines currently excel in experience-based learning and can discover relationships in data that we cannot discern. Humans can intuit, deceive, somewhat control, and manufacture and destroy machines. In time, AI will be able to perform those cognitive, informational and physical functions as well. As out-thought becomes out-fought, we need proactive doctrine now.

Multi Domain Operations

Electromagnetic Pulse Threats to America’s Electric Grid: Counterpoints to Electric Power Research Institute Positions

August 27, 2019October 28, 2019 Over The Horizon 5 Comments EDTF, Electro-magnetic, EMP, EMS, energy, Energy Grid, Multi Domain, Nuclear, Policy, Power Grid

Editor’s note: This article is part of a supporting engagement with the Electromagnetic Defense Task Force’s efforts in order to

OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain

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Tactics of Strategy and Strategy of Tactics

July 19, 2019August 19, 2019 Over The Horizon 0 Comments competition, mdo, NDS, NSS, planning, Policy, strategy, tactics

By: Tom Drohan Approximate Reading Time: 12 minutes Excerpt: Smart competitors are using tactics of strategy to achieve broader-than-military objectives,

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

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Avoiding the Early Bird– Innovation in the US Air Force

July 11, 2018July 19, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments acquisitions, AFWERX, air force, decision making, innovation, Policy

“The early bird gets the worm. The early worm… gets eaten” – Norm Augustine With support from the highest levels

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Aquisition Policy Podcast Highlights

July 6, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment air force, aquisitions, history, planning, Policy

Podcast Highlights: Unpacking Defense Acquisition Policy the Laird-Packard Way Editor’s Note: OTH sat down with Brian Fredrickson to discuss how

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Podcast: Unpacking Defense Acquisition Policy the Laird-Packard Way

July 5, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments acquisition, David Packard, Hewlett Packard, Policy

Lessons learned from the study of David Packard, Deputy Secretary of Defense from 1969 to 1971, may influence present day acquisition policy.

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The Last Days of Putin

June 4, 2018June 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments democracy, domestic politics, domestic stability, economy, Kremlin, Moscow, NATO, Policy, politics, Putin, Russia, Stalin

Although the US should strive for less confrontational relations with Russia, it may be too late to salvage relations with Putin.

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Russia-US Relationship: A Round Table Discussion

June 1, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments culture, hybrid warfare, Latent, National Interests, National Power, national security, NATO, Policy, Putin, reflexive control, Revolution, Russia, strategy, Threat, West, Western

Approximate reading time: 20 minutes Editor’s Note: OTH sat down with three professors from Air University to discuss the Russia-US

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Podcast: Russian Strategy and Russia-US Relations

May 30, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 4 Comments culture, hybrid warfare, Latent, National Interests, National Power, national security, NATO, NSS, Policy, Putin, reflexive control, Russia, strategy, Threat

Three professors from Air University sit down to discuss the Russia-US relationship from a strategy and policy perspective. Welcome to

OTH, Mutli-Domain Operations, Emerging Security Environment

References

Strategic Design: Compiled

April 12, 2018April 12, 2018 Over The Horizon 4 Comments Assumptions, Cognitive Map, Congruency Mechanism, Continuity Mechanism, Continuum of Time, Desired System, Government, grand strategy, Interagency, national security, Observed System, planning, Policy, Problem Sets, Shocks, Strategic Design, Strategists, strategy, Trends, Water Scarcity

This article is an out of cycle publication in order to consolidate three previously published articles on Strategic Design. The introduction makes the case for a “whole of community” approach to strategy and policy development, and parts I & II present the structural elements of Strategic Design.

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Strategic Design Part II

March 14, 2018March 22, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments Assumptions, Cognitive Map, Congruency Mechanism, Continuity Mechanism, Continuum of Time, Government, grand strategy, Interagency, national security, Policy, Problem Sets, Shocks, Strategic Design, strategy, Trends, Water Scarcity

Strategic design is not a strategy cure all, it is a means by which to go far beyond ill structured brain storming sessions and tactically rigid joint planning.

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Strategic Design Part I

March 12, 2018March 20, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments Desired System, Government, grand strategy, Interagency, national security, Observed System, planning, Policy, Strategic Design, Strategists, strategy

Strategic design is a constructivist model focused on developing schemata to explore complex problem sets involving grand strategy and policy.

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Introduction to Strategic Design

March 9, 2018March 18, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments Design, featured, Government, grand strategy, Interagency, MDOS, national security, Plan, planning, Policy, Problem Sets, Strategic Design, strategy

A strategic design framework may be the point of origin for fostering “whole of community” solutions.

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