OTH | autonomy

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Achieving Strategic Advantage (Part 2 of 2)

September 23, 2020September 23, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment acquisition, AI, artificial intelligence, autonomy, china, cyber, decision making, doctrine, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, joint, Leadership, national security, NATO, Policy, risk, Russia, strategy, technology

Executive Summary: Our previous article on supply chain competition and warfare explained how political, economic, and security issues unleash and restrain strategies of competitive advantage. China is waging all-effects warfare. Meanwhile, democratic states and the US compete with a self-imposed disadvantage: inferior operating strategy at the strategic level of significance. How can we compete and when necessary, wage superior complex warfare in kind?

Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Fundamentals of Strategic Advantage (Part 1 of 2)

September 18, 2020September 17, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment acquisition, AI, artificial intelligence, autonomy, china, cyber, decision making, doctrine, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, joint, Leadership, national security, NATO, Policy, risk, Russia, strategy, technology

Executive Summary: In the hands of authoritarian powers, supply chains are systematically weaponized into broad warfare that subsumes democracies’ traditionally narrow military approach. This series analyzes supply chain competition, warfare, and strategy in two parts. Part I discusses fundamentals that set strategic parameters for achieving an “all-effects” advantage: globalization and protectionism; strategies of national security; incentives and risks; and political and technological change. This broad perspective on competition and warfare is necessary to implement the cooperative and confrontational competition prescribed in the US National Security Strategy. Part II identifies decisions and makes recommendations to combine superior “all-effects” using diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and social instruments of power. This integrative perspective is necessary to synergize strategic advantages derived from the US National Defense Strategy and sixteen other national security-related strategies.

Featured

Human-led Machine Learning & Advanced Threats: Case Method Inquiry and Visual Analytics Applied to COVID-19

March 26, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment A2AD, acquisition, AI, airpower, analysis, Analytics, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, COVID, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, multi-domain operations, national security, Nodal, Nodal Analysis, node, Pandemic, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology

In a pervasive and complex information environment, analytics are vital to understanding advanced threats. As we rely more on machine-learnt results, asking the right questions and visualizing deep analysis are key to grasping and solving problems. These skills are also vital 21st century leadership tools that can forge a common focus among otherwise stove-piped specialists.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents an urgent threat that requires both scientific understanding and decisive leadership. The cause of the disease is SARS CoV-2, a mutating virus that thrives in conditions difficult to control at scale. To counter this threat, this article demonstrates in detail the potential of human-led case method and machine-provided visual analytics.

Featured

Artificial Intelligence in the Operational Information Environment: The Need for Proactive Doctrine

February 26, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments A2AD, ACE, acquisition, ACS, Agile Combat Employment, Agile Combat Support, AI, air force, airpower, army, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, joint, Leadership, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, mission command, Multi Domain, multi-domain operations, national security, OODA Loop, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, usaf

Joint operations doctrine omits the agency of artificial intelligence (AI) in the operational information environment, which is a problem. This commentary discusses why, and recommends effective changes. Key points are as follows. AI is becoming an autonomous cause of unanticipated effects. Humans are not the most effectively intelligent actors in all environments, yet our doctrine draws lessons from the past rather than anticipating emergent futures. Machines currently excel in experience-based learning and can discover relationships in data that we cannot discern. Humans can intuit, deceive, somewhat control, and manufacture and destroy machines. In time, AI will be able to perform those cognitive, informational and physical functions as well. As out-thought becomes out-fought, we need proactive doctrine now.

Featured

How the Air Force Should Test Autonomous Vehicles Part 2

January 4, 2019February 5, 2019 Over The Horizon 0 Comments autonomy, Machine learning, Systems Training

Part 2 of the conclusion to a series on training and developing autonomous wingmen for future aerial combat.

Featured

How the Air Force should Test Autonomous Vehicles Part 1 of 2

January 2, 2019January 13, 2019 Over The Horizon 0 Comments autonomy, Machine learning, Systems Training

In part 1 of a 2-part series conclusion, Nick Helms discusses foundations and processes for testing and training autonomous air vehicles.

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

Featured

Ethics in Autonomy

September 28, 2018October 16, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments autonomy, ethics, ISR, robotics, Walzer

Without a public discourse on autonomy, there might not be anything left worth fighting over.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

The Cyber (EMS) Offset

April 30, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments acquisition, AI, autonomy, cognitive computing, cyber, game-changing technologies, national security, offset, Third Offset

Cognitive computing may have significant implications for future cyber and multi-domain operations.

Multimedia

Interview with Lieutenant General Jack Shanahan: Part 2

April 4, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 10 Comments acquisition, Algorithmic Warfare, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomy, industry, innovation, Lt Gen Shanahan, machine learning (ML), OODA Loop, program of record, prototype warfare

Excerpt: In an interview, Lt Gen Jack Shanahan shares his vision for the role of artificial intelligence and machine learning

Multimedia

Interview with Lieutenant General Jack Shanahan: Part 1

April 2, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 2 Comments Algorithmic Warfare, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomy, counter-AI, full motion video (FMV), Gorgon Stare Wide Area Motion Imagery (WAMI), Human-Machine Teaming, Lt Gen Shanahan, machine learning (ML), machine-machine teaming, OODA Loop, Project Maven, unmanned aerial surveillance (UAS)

In an interview, Lt Gen Jack Shanahan shares his insights on the future implications of artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Commentary

DROP ZONE: The Rise of the Machines

February 16, 2018February 15, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments airpower, Alan Turing, autonomy, Billy Mitchell, innovation, machines, Nick Helms, rise, swarming AI, swarms, terminator, Third Offset

Although the machines have not taken over, swarms offer a solution to the problem of accessing contested areas and destroying challenging target sets.