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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Métis: Strategic Sense for a Wicked World

July 13, 2020September 25, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment air force, army, command and control, culture, Design, human domain, Information Operations, intelligence, joint, mission command, navy, planning, Policy, strategy

Abstract: The U.S. defense community regularly acknowledges changes in the character of modern warfare. These observations are often coupled with a variety of recommendations, such as creating more strategic thinkers and cultivating more agile service cultures. This article highlights the tangled interactions between these two challenges as well as a third: harnessing the power of storytelling. First, stories both reflect and influence an organization’s culture, and are therefore a useful tool for strategic thinkers. Second, when it comes to strategic thinking, the typical descriptions and illustrations used by defense professionals are incomplete and biased. Missing from this list of examples, for instance, is someone from the origins of Western civilization who personified the wisdom to convert “insight into a decisive asymmetry.” This ancient role model not only exemplifies the strategic sense necessary to prepare the joint force’s culture for modern operating environments, but is also closely linked to the third element of this trinity – storytelling.

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Do We Still Have a Coalition of the Willing? Reinforcing National Security through Dedicated Cultural Training

June 26, 2020August 27, 2020 Over The Horizon 0 Comments air force, army, CAOC, china, decision making, Design, intelligence, ISR, joint, Leadership, multi-domain, national security, NATO, planning, risk, Russia, strategy, usaf

The U.S. has been working with collation partners for decades to address matters of global and national security. Alongside over 80 partner nations, the U.S. has accomplished milestones in the Global Fight against ISIS, which would not have been possible without such a combined front. Part of these successes are due to the DoD’s shift a decade ago to incorporate partner nations in our military processes to fuse holistic intelligence for decisionmakers through multiple coalition intelligence cells around the world. As the battlespace continues to shift from years of counterinsurgency to face revisionist powers and rogue states, the personnel identified to fill critical positions that interact with coalition members will determine the successes of future conflicts. This essay will describe some recent advances the US Air Force has made toward improving coalition intelligence operations and recommend ways to improve selection and training programs in the future.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Defense Of The Homeland In A New Age, Part III

June 19, 2020June 28, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment ABMS, AGM-183, AGR-20A, air force, airpower, army, ballistic missile, china, COVID-19, cyber, Cyber-Attack, cyber-defense, deterrence, dod, domain, drug trafficking, EMP, EMS, GPS, Homeland Defense, human domain, human trafficking, Hypersonics, ICBM, Illegal immigration, innovation, Iran, JADC2, joint, MDC2, mdo, navy, NDS, North Korea, planning, PNT, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, Threat, USA, usaf, USN

Editor’s note: The following article is the third of a three-part series discussing necessary advancements which will best enable the Department of Defense to continue to lead during current and future periods of competition. Part I focused on the history of the current threats, Part II outlined areas of defense and civilian research which must be pursued, and Part III delves into the path forward for cohesive, joint application of technology and research.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Defense Of The Homeland In A New Age, Part II

June 17, 2020June 28, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment ABMS, air force, airpower, army, ballistic missile, china, COVID-19, cyber, Cyber-Attack, cyber-defense, deterrence, dod, domain, drug trafficking, EMP, EMS, GPS, Homeland Defense, human domain, human trafficking, Hypersonics, ICBM, Illegal immigration, innovation, Iran, JADC2, joint, MDC2, mdo, navy, NDS, North Korea, planning, PNT, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, Threat, USA, usaf, USN

Editor’s note: The following article is the second of a three-part series discussing necessary advancements which will best enable the Department of Defense to continue to lead during current and future periods of competition. Part I focused on the history of the current threats, Part II outlines areas of defense and civilian research which must be pursued, and Part III delves into the path forward for cohesive, joint application of technology and research.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Defense Of The Homeland In A New Age, Part I

June 15, 2020June 28, 2020 Over The Horizon 3 Comments ABMS, air force, airpower, army, ballistic missile, china, COVID-19, cyber, Cyber-Attack, cyber-defense, deterrence, dod, domain, drug trafficking, EMP, EMS, GPS, Homeland Defense, human domain, human trafficking, Hypersonics, ICBM, Illegal immigration, innovation, Iran, JADC2, joint, MDC2, mdo, navy, NDS, North Korea, planning, PNT, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, Threat, USA, usaf, USN

Editor’s note: The following article is the first of a three-part series discussing necessary advancements which will best enable the Department of Defense to continue to lead during current and future periods of competition. Part I briefly reviews threats America has faced thru history and those which it currently faces across all domains. Part II outlines areas of defense and civilian research which must be pursued, and Part III delves into the path forward for cohesive, joint application of technology and research.

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Artificial Intelligence in the Operational Information Environment: The Need for Proactive Doctrine

February 26, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments A2AD, ACE, acquisition, ACS, Agile Combat Employment, Agile Combat Support, AI, air force, airpower, army, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, joint, Leadership, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, mission command, Multi Domain, multi-domain operations, national security, OODA Loop, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, usaf

Joint operations doctrine omits the agency of artificial intelligence (AI) in the operational information environment, which is a problem. This commentary discusses why, and recommends effective changes. Key points are as follows. AI is becoming an autonomous cause of unanticipated effects. Humans are not the most effectively intelligent actors in all environments, yet our doctrine draws lessons from the past rather than anticipating emergent futures. Machines currently excel in experience-based learning and can discover relationships in data that we cannot discern. Humans can intuit, deceive, somewhat control, and manufacture and destroy machines. In time, AI will be able to perform those cognitive, informational and physical functions as well. As out-thought becomes out-fought, we need proactive doctrine now.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Lt Gen Deptula Remarks – OTH Speaker Series – Aerospace Power in an Age of Uncertainty

February 28, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment ACSC, aerospace, air and space operations center, Air Command and Staff College, air component, air force, Air University, Air War College, airpower, AOC, army, AU, AWC, C2, CAOC, CFACC, combat cloud, command and control, cyber, data analytics, David Deptula, decision making, Deptula, effects based operations, F-22, F-35, Goldfein, goldwaters-nichols, Gulf War, indivisibility of ISR, information, Information Age, intelligence, ISR, Joint Force, Marines, multi-domain C2, nation security, navy, nuclear forces, OODA Loop, OTH, over the horizon, reconnaissance, sensor, sensor-shooter, space, surveillance, United States Air Force, usaf

Retired Lt Gen David Deptula shares his thoughts on the future of warfare-in particular, aerospace power in an age of uncertainty.

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OTH Anniversary The Military Design Movement: Drifting towards Embracing Uncertainty and Transformation in Complex Environments

January 8, 2018January 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments army, Design, MDOS

As part of our anniversary celebration series, we present the third most read article of 2017.

Multimedia

Podcast 2: Relating Gray Zone Conflict & Multi-Domain Operations

August 16, 2017September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments army, Gray Zone, human domain, MDOS, risk

Welcome to OTH’s second podcast! For this episode we’ve brought together a group of experts to discuss two topics that have consumed Defense policy and academic conversations over the last few years: Multi-Domain Operations and Gray Zone Conflict.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Organising Logistics for Multi-Domain Battle: Making a Complex Problem Even More Complex

June 26, 2017September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 2 Comments adaptive warfighting, army, Operational Art

Sustaining operations in the hypothesised dispersed and deadly conflict zones of the present and future creates especially acute problems for land forces in multi-domain battle.
By David Beaumont

Commentary

DROP ZONE: Decision Making

May 19, 2017May 18, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments air power, army, decision making, drop zone, dz, ISR, Military Decision Cycle

Innovation continues the quest to provide more perfect information and decrease the risk of making an incorrect decision.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Purpose Driven Operations

May 10, 2017September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment army, Design, doctrine, history, MDOS, mission command, ww1

It is incumbent upon commanders to develop purposes for subordinate operations first and subsequently build the tasks. The “why” trumps the “how” both in importance and in priority.
By Tom Flounders

Interview

The Future of Mission Command: an Interview with Mr. Michael McCarthy

May 8, 2017May 16, 2017 Over The Horizon 1 Comment army, future mission command, landwarnet, mission command

The Future of Mission Command: “We conceived a system in the 1990’s that is based on 1980’s technology. There is a groundswell of folks that are saying we need a new approach.”

Commentary

DROP ZONE: Joint Command and Control

May 5, 2017May 4, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments army, command and control, drop zone, mission command

Our Services need to mature and lead the drive to Jointness, both across the DOD and the complex American alliance system

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Multi-Domain Battle: Does it End the Never-Ending Quest for Joint Readiness?

May 2, 2017September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments air force, army, joint, joint readiness, navy, readiness

Future jointness demands fundamental changes to organizing, training, and equipping the joint force to meet combatant commander multi-domain requirements.
By Mike Benitez

Featured

Making Sense of Irregular War

April 19, 2017April 26, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments army, coin, counterinsurgency, culture, information warfare, lessons learned

Irregularity in terms of non-uniformed forces and indirect force application describe how the war is fought, not why. While this may seem like academic semantics, it is not.
By Joe Brown

Featured

Reflexive Control in Operational Art: Designing Emergent Opportunity in the Vicksburg Campaign

March 29, 2017April 5, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments army, history, information warfare, lessons learned, reflexive control, vicksburg

True victory in military operations arises through the acceptance of defeat by one of the antagonists. Despite this, military decision making frequently devolves into analysis of things over thoughts. Grant demonstrated mastery of this concept at Vicksburg.
By Wilford Garvin

Commentary

DROP ZONE: Looking Backwards in Order to Look Forwards

March 27, 2017March 27, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments army, drop zone, history, lessons learned

History may not easily divulge its true lessons. But by objectively analyzing past wars, we can begin to see the commonalities that commanders can exploit to achieve success.

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The Problem with “Airpower”

March 8, 2017March 15, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments air power, airpower, army, cyber, doctrine, joint, joint doctrine, MDOS, space, USMC

The United States Air Force’s definition of airpower is merely a description of all Air Force activities and is incorrect.
By Tom Flounders

Featured

Reflexive Control By Design: Crafting Emergent Opportunity in Complex Systems

February 20, 2017February 27, 2017 Over The Horizon 5 Comments army, Design, Military Decision Cycle, miltiary design, OODA, Operational Art, RC by design, refelxive control

Reflexive control theory encourages patterns of strategic thought that increase a leader’s ability to shape environments and defeat an adversary’s strategy.
By Wilford Garvin

Commentary

DROP ZONE: Reflexive Control in Modern Warfare

February 18, 2017February 20, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments army, drop zone, MDOS, Military Decision Cycle, Operational Art, reflexive control, USMC

Reflexive control is a term that has recently surfaced as a description of Russian strategic and operational planning and goals. However, as a concept it has been around for ages. More coming on Monday.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

The Military Design Movement: Drifting towards Embracing Uncertainty and Transformation in Complex Environments

January 20, 2017March 26, 2021 Over The Horizon 15 Comments army, Design, MDOS

Design, as a multi-disciplinary concept for normative approaches to human decision-making, emphasizes ‘what is possible’ and ‘how a military ought to function’ rather than a highly descriptive and conforming model (termed positivism) where militaries seek to predict future system behavior through past experiences, reductionism, and mechanistic logic.
By Ben Zweibelson

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