The Arctic’s evolving geopolitical landscape has catapulted this previously overlooked region into the global security spotlight and emerging geopolitical tensions.  The Arctic is entering an unprecedented era of importance, shaped by an evolving geopolitical landscape that is a study in contrast and competition as a warming Arctic meets great powers. With the addition of Sweden and Finland to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), seven of the eight Arctic Nations are allies. That stability contrasts and clashes against the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation’s (RF) deepening cooperation. The convergence of the PRC and RF’s interests, manifesting in collaborative energy projects and coordinated military activities, highlights an axis of upheaval against the NATO axis of allies in a competition that stands to shape the coming world order.

Russia, with the region’s longest Arctic coastline and extensive Arctic military infrastructure, has increasingly emphasized its Arctic presence, reinforcing both its strategic and economic interests. At the same time, China, though not an Arctic state, has published an Arctic policy and declared itself a ‘near-Arctic nation,’ advancing initiatives such as the Polar Silk Road to strengthen its foothold in the region. The two countries have engaged in joint naval exercises in the Arctic Ocean and conducted a first-of-its-kind combined penetration of the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with bomber aircraft, highlighting their growing military cooperation. Additionally, their collaboration on infrastructure projects, including ports and energy exploration, reflects a shared interest in expanding their influence in the Arctic.

The evolving strategic dynamics in the region were a central topic at the inaugural Anchorage Security and Defense Conference (ASDC) in November 2024. This event, led by the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies in partnership with the University of Alaska Anchorage and the Arctic Domain Awareness Center, brought together over 200 military leaders, policymakers, and academics to address the pressing challenges facing Arctic security. Discussions emphasized the need for nuanced strategies that balance regional collaboration with safeguarding the interests of the US and its allies amid growing competition from Russia and China. The conference underscored the complexity of Arctic security, highlighting the interplay of economic partnerships, strategic interests, and global governance in shaping the future of the region.

The Strategic Importance of the Arctic

The ASDC made clear that the Arctic’s strategic importance is no longer a distant concern but rather an immediate priority. The U.S. National Security Strategy refers to the 2020s as the “decisive decade,” with the Arctic playing a pivotal role in shaping global stability. As climate change accelerates the ice melt and opens new sea routes, the region is becoming a key stage for great power competition.

Russia and China’s increasing Arctic influence poses substantial challenges to U.S. and allied interests. The strategic alignment between Russia and China creates a complex environment where competition could escalate into confrontation if left unchecked. A proactive, multilateral approach is essential to ensure the Arctic remains stable and secure.

The implications of this strategic convergence are profound. Russia, with its vast Arctic coastline and longstanding regional presence, has significantly expanded its military infrastructure, including an enhanced network of Arctic bases and a bolstered Northern Fleet. While this could be seen as a logical step for a nation with substantial territorial interests in the region, it raises critical concerns. Russia’s actions are not limited to defense; they represent a broader bid to assert dominance over essential shipping routes, energy reserves, and regional governance structures. This buildup challenges the cooperative norms that have historically governed Arctic relations and introduces the potential for heightened tensions among Arctic states.

China’s Arctic ambitions further complicate the situation. Although not an Arctic nation, China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state,” a self-proclaimed status that challenges the region’s established norms of sovereignty and governance. Through its Polar Silk Road initiative, China seeks to develop new shipping routes and embed itself in the Arctic economy with substantial investments in infrastructure and energy exploration. These moves signal Beijing’s intent to become a long-term stakeholder in the Arctic, leveraging its economic power to shape the region’s future in ways that may conflict with the interests of the U.S. and its allies.

These actions raise the stakes for all Arctic nations, highlighting the need for vigilance and cooperation among allies to deter potential aggression and uphold the norms of peaceful collaboration. The increasing presence and strategic alignment of Russia and China in the Arctic are not just regional issues—they are global challenges. These developments could reshape the governance, security, and economic dynamics of the Arctic, with far-reaching consequences for international stability. Understanding and addressing these implications is critical to ensuring that the Arctic remains a region of cooperation rather than conflict.

Operational Challenges and Technological Solutions 

The region’s extreme environment is one of the primary hurdles in Arctic security operations. The Arctic presents unique operational challenges, from harsh weather conditions to infrastructure gaps. The ASDC emphasized the importance of technological innovation in overcoming these obstacles. Artificial intelligence and advanced sensing technologies are critical enablers for enhancing domain awareness, improving navigation, and ensuring energy resilience. 

The region’s remoteness and lack of infrastructure present a logistical nightmare for military and civilian operations. Harsh weather conditions, including severe storms, extreme cold, and unpredictable ice movements, make navigation treacherous. Infrastructure gaps, particularly in communication networks and transportation routes, hinder the ability to respond quickly to emergencies or security threats. The ASDC discussions highlighted the need for sustainable and resilient infrastructure to support operations in this harsh environment. Investing in satellite communication systems, autonomous vehicles, and renewable energy sources can significantly improve operational efficiency and reduce logistical challenges. 

The conference’s discussions on sustainable infrastructure noted that the Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the global average. This environmental reality demands robust, sustainable solutions to support military and civilian operations. The emphasis on green technologies and resilient infrastructure showcases a forward-looking approach to Arctic security. For example, developing modular, portable infrastructure that can be quickly deployed and adapted to changing conditions is a practical solution for enhancing presence and preparedness in the Arctic. 

Enhancing Multilateral Cooperation 

Multilateral cooperation was a recurring theme as the conference reinforced Alaska’s role as a strategic hub, highlighting the need for deepened collaboration among Arctic nations. Partnering with allies and integrating policies across military and civilian sectors are essential for addressing the Arctic’s unique challenges. 

The eight Arctic nations shape the Arctic region’s geopolitical landscape: the United States, Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia. Cooperation among these states is crucial to ensure regional stability and address shared challenges. The ASDC highlighted several initiatives to enhance multilateral cooperation, including joint military exercises, information sharing, and coordinated infrastructure investments. Strengthening partnerships with near-arctic nations with vested interests, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan, can bolster collective resilience deter potential adversaries, and enhance to cohort to counter the axis of upheaval.

Attendees from the U.S., Canada, Denmark, Norway, and other Arctic nations underscored the urgency of closing capability gaps. Notably, the disparity in icebreaker fleets was identified as a critical vulnerability. Icebreakers are essential for maintaining access to the Arctic’s frozen waters, conducting search and rescue operations, and supporting scientific research. The U.S., in particular, lags Russia in icebreaker capabilities in a 41:2 ratio, posing a significant strategic disadvantage. Addressing this gap requires investment in new icebreakers and collaboration with allies to maximize existing resources. 

The conference stressed the importance of joint military exercises, interoperability, and information sharing to enhance collective readiness. Arctic Edge and Northern Strike, for instance, provide valuable opportunities for Arctic nations to train together, improve coordination, and test new technologies in a realistic operational environment. These exercises also send a strong message of unity and resolve to potential adversaries. 

Integrating Indigenous Perspectives 

A key strength of the ASDC was its integration of Indigenous perspectives. Rather than treating Indigenous communities as an afterthought, the conference ensured their voices were central to sovereignty, climate adaptation, and regional security discussions. 

Indigenous communities have lived in the Arctic for thousands of years and possess a deep understanding of the region’s environment. Their knowledge of local weather patterns, wildlife behavior, and survival strategies can significantly enhance operational effectiveness. The conference emphasized the importance of consulting Indigenous communities in planning and executing Arctic operations. Paraphrasing one speaker, the Arctic is ready to break people and equipment. Proper training and utilizing experts such as the Indigenous communities can be the difference between life and death. Building trust and fostering partnerships with these communities has incredible value and can also improve situational awareness and contribute to sustainable development in the region. 

Recognizing Indigenous communities as vital stakeholders is not just a matter of inclusion but a strategic necessity. Their deep understanding of the Arctic’s geophysical and cultural landscape can significantly enhance operational effectiveness and policy development. Moreover, incorporating Indigenous knowledge into decision-making processes can help ensure that Arctic policies are culturally sound and environmentally sustainable. 

Addressing Hybrid Threats and Asymmetric Challenges 

A complex interplay of hybrid threats and asymmetric challenges further characterizes the Arctic’s security landscape. From cyberattacks on critical infrastructure to gray-zone activities that blur the lines between military and civilian operations, the region requires a flexible, multi-domain response. Conference sessions highlighted the need for tailored strategies to counter these threats. Discussions on radar upgrades, information sharing, and space-based capabilities were identified as essential components of Arctic defense. Additionally, the conference emphasized the importance of proactive campaign planning to address potential crises before they escalate. 

Hybrid threats in the Arctic can take many forms, including misinformation campaigns, economic coercion, and critical infrastructure sabotage. Addressing these threats requires a comprehensive approach integrating military, financial, and diplomatic tools. Enhancing cyber resilience, improving intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and developing rapid response capabilities are essential for mitigating the impact of hybrid threats. 

The Role of the U.S. in Arctic Security 

As the Arctic gains prominence in global geopolitics, the U.S. must lead in shaping the region’s future. The ASDC underscored the need for sustained investment in Arctic-specific capabilities, from icebreakers and satellite systems to training programs tailored to the region’s unique challenges. The U.S. must prioritize Arctic security in its defense planning. This includes developing a comprehensive strategy that integrates soft and hard power dynamics, aligns with the interests of Arctic nations, and addresses emerging threats. Maintaining a consistent presence in the region is crucial to deterring adversaries and reassuring allies. 

The Way Forward 

The inaugural ASDC set a strong foundation for future dialogue and collaboration on Arctic security. As the region evolves, the need for proactive, multilateral strategies will only grow more urgent. Moving forward, the U.S. and its allies must focus on closing capability gaps, enhancing infrastructure resilience, and addressing hybrid threats. Integrating Indigenous knowledge and fostering multilateral cooperation will be essential for navigating the Arctic’s uncharted waters. The Arctic’s future is still being written, but one thing is clear: the decisions made in this decisive decade will shape the region’s trajectory for years to come. The ASDC represents a critical step in ensuring that the Arctic remains secure, stable, and strategically advantageous for the U.S. and its allies. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Air Force or the U.S. Government.