OTH | decision making

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

The Power of Truth: How to Compete with Information Warfare

May 10, 2021May 9, 2021 Over The Horizon 1 Comment 16 AF, accelerate change, air force, Bellingcat, c4isr, Convergence, Cuban Missile Crisis, culture, DCGS, decision making, disinformation, GCC, GPC, Great Power Competition, information warfare, intelligence, ISR, IW, KAL007, MH17, misinformation, national security, NDS, New Rules of War, NSS, organizational change, plausible deniability, RC-135, Russia, strategy, technology, usaf

Abstract: The United States Air Force (USAF) must leverage truth to defuse adversarial claims to plausible deniability. A fictional scenario of an RC-135 shootdown by a Russian private military company (PMC) conveys the implications of failure with information warfare (IW). Today, the USAF lacks the ability to counter plausible deniability in the information environment with the tempo and speed required to outpace and outthink its adversaries. Three recommendations are offered. First, the USAF should operate outside of current geographic constraints. Second, the USAF should shift to a problem-centric strategy independent of intelligence collection platforms. Lastly, the USAF should shift its information warfare posture from reactive to proactive in today’s dynamic information environment.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

AF DCGS Next Generation: Transformation for Great Power Competition

December 1, 2020March 24, 2021 Over The Horizon 2 Comments ABMS, AET, AI, AI/ML, air force, all domain, analysis, C2, c4isr, command and control, Convergence, culture, decision making, exploitation, GPC, Great Power Competition, information warfare, intelligence, ISR, IW, JADC2, JADO, joint, Machine learning, ML, national security, organizational change, planning, risk, strategy, TAGs: DCGS, technology, usaf, wars of cognition

Abstract: The AF DCGS is in the midst of the most significant transformation it has seen since its inception in the mid-1990s. Primarily driven by the need to find a way to more efficiently process the glut of data now available to the intelligence community, the AF DCGS transformation to the problem-centric model of analysis is already paying major dividends in the Enterprise’s ability to provide enhanced intelligence to its customers. This article discusses the transformation and describes in detail how the AF DCGS is now oriented to prepare the air component for great power competition.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

DCGS Next Generation: Accelerating Change to Deliver Decision Advantage

September 26, 2020January 18, 2021 Over The Horizon 1 Comment ABMS, AI, air force, all domain, artificial intelligence, C2, c4isr, CAOC, command and control, culture, DCGS, decision making, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, JADO, joint, national security, planning, risk, strategy, technology, usaf

By Kelly Borukhovich and Tyler Morton Approximate reading time: 11 minutes Abstract: The DCGS Next Generation (DCGS Next Gen) delivers

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Achieving Strategic Advantage (Part 2 of 2)

September 23, 2020January 18, 2021 Over The Horizon 1 Comment acquisition, AI, artificial intelligence, autonomy, china, cyber, decision making, doctrine, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, joint, Leadership, national security, NATO, Policy, risk, Russia, strategy, technology

Executive Summary: Our previous article on supply chain competition and warfare explained how political, economic, and security issues unleash and restrain strategies of competitive advantage. China is waging all-effects warfare. Meanwhile, democratic states and the US compete with a self-imposed disadvantage: inferior operating strategy at the strategic level of significance. How can we compete and when necessary, wage superior complex warfare in kind?

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Fundamentals of Strategic Advantage (Part 1 of 2)

September 18, 2020January 18, 2021 Over The Horizon 1 Comment acquisition, AI, artificial intelligence, autonomy, china, cyber, decision making, doctrine, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, joint, Leadership, national security, NATO, Policy, risk, Russia, strategy, technology

Executive Summary: In the hands of authoritarian powers, supply chains are systematically weaponized into broad warfare that subsumes democracies’ traditionally narrow military approach. This series analyzes supply chain competition, warfare, and strategy in two parts. Part I discusses fundamentals that set strategic parameters for achieving an “all-effects” advantage: globalization and protectionism; strategies of national security; incentives and risks; and political and technological change. This broad perspective on competition and warfare is necessary to implement the cooperative and confrontational competition prescribed in the US National Security Strategy. Part II identifies decisions and makes recommendations to combine superior “all-effects” using diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and social instruments of power. This integrative perspective is necessary to synergize strategic advantages derived from the US National Defense Strategy and sixteen other national security-related strategies.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Do We Still Have a Coalition of the Willing? Reinforcing National Security through Dedicated Cultural Training

June 26, 2020August 27, 2020 Over The Horizon 0 Comments air force, army, CAOC, china, decision making, Design, intelligence, ISR, joint, Leadership, multi-domain, national security, NATO, planning, risk, Russia, strategy, usaf

The U.S. has been working with collation partners for decades to address matters of global and national security. Alongside over 80 partner nations, the U.S. has accomplished milestones in the Global Fight against ISIS, which would not have been possible without such a combined front. Part of these successes are due to the DoD’s shift a decade ago to incorporate partner nations in our military processes to fuse holistic intelligence for decisionmakers through multiple coalition intelligence cells around the world. As the battlespace continues to shift from years of counterinsurgency to face revisionist powers and rogue states, the personnel identified to fill critical positions that interact with coalition members will determine the successes of future conflicts. This essay will describe some recent advances the US Air Force has made toward improving coalition intelligence operations and recommend ways to improve selection and training programs in the future.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Communications in Multi-Domain Operations: What Does the BACN Bring?

June 24, 2020August 27, 2020 Over The Horizon 3 Comments A2/AD, acquisition, air force, c4isr, china, combat, command and control, decision making, doctrine, innovation, intelligence, ISR, joint, multi-domain operations, planning, Russia, space, technology, usaf

Communications are an important element of any military operation. A lack of infrastructure and rough terrain have hindered U.S. military operations in Afghanistan (2001-Present) and Iraq (2003-Present). The difficulties encountered in both countries initially led to several different ad hoc solutions for overcoming poor communications. Eventually a long-term solution emerged, known as BACN (Battlefield Airborne Communications Node) with two dedicated platforms, an E-11A and EQ-4B. This article provides new insights on the BACN program and its history, and considers the importance of E-11s providing BACN for future multi-domain warfighting environments. Finally, it encourages new ways of thinking on how to operate in a contested environment, proposing a “BACN-mesh” concept as a way of overcoming such a vulnerability with an adversary jamming the electromagnetic spectrum.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Human-led Machine Learning & Advanced Threats: Case Method Inquiry and Visual Analytics Applied to COVID-19

March 26, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment A2AD, acquisition, AI, airpower, analysis, Analytics, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, COVID, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, multi-domain operations, national security, Nodal, Nodal Analysis, node, Pandemic, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology

In a pervasive and complex information environment, analytics are vital to understanding advanced threats. As we rely more on machine-learnt results, asking the right questions and visualizing deep analysis are key to grasping and solving problems. These skills are also vital 21st century leadership tools that can forge a common focus among otherwise stove-piped specialists.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents an urgent threat that requires both scientific understanding and decisive leadership. The cause of the disease is SARS CoV-2, a mutating virus that thrives in conditions difficult to control at scale. To counter this threat, this article demonstrates in detail the potential of human-led case method and machine-provided visual analytics.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Artificial Intelligence in the Operational Information Environment: The Need for Proactive Doctrine

February 26, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments A2AD, ACE, acquisition, ACS, Agile Combat Employment, Agile Combat Support, AI, air force, airpower, army, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, joint, Leadership, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, mission command, Multi Domain, multi-domain operations, national security, OODA Loop, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, usaf

Joint operations doctrine omits the agency of artificial intelligence (AI) in the operational information environment, which is a problem. This commentary discusses why, and recommends effective changes. Key points are as follows. AI is becoming an autonomous cause of unanticipated effects. Humans are not the most effectively intelligent actors in all environments, yet our doctrine draws lessons from the past rather than anticipating emergent futures. Machines currently excel in experience-based learning and can discover relationships in data that we cannot discern. Humans can intuit, deceive, somewhat control, and manufacture and destroy machines. In time, AI will be able to perform those cognitive, informational and physical functions as well. As out-thought becomes out-fought, we need proactive doctrine now.

Air Force Decision Making Training

February 7, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 0 Comments decision making, experienced-based, good decisions, implement decisions, intuition-based, realistic training, Recognition Primed Decision-Making, RPDM

Dichotomous, black or white, answers are sufficient for initial qualification training, but are rarely the case in the real time battlespace. Just as the United States Air Force (USAF) changed its training philosophy after Vietnam, the USAF must update the current real time battlespace decision-making education to the Recognition Primed Decision-Making (RPDM) model and deliberately train its personnel in situations that require rapid decision making.

OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain

Preparing for the Unpredictable: Accident Management in Great Power Competition

May 6, 2019June 13, 2019 Over The Horizon 0 Comments accident management, china, decision making, Great Power Competition, mdo, multi-domain operations, Risk Management, Russia

This article identifies the potential of international accidents across domains and identifies factors decision makers must consider before/after an accident.

OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain

Decision Maneuver: the Next Revolution in Military Affairs

April 29, 2019June 2, 2019 Over The Horizon 2 Comments decision making, decision maneuver, kill web, mosaic warfare, revolution in military affairs, RMA, third offset strategy

The next major arena of military competition will likely be information and decision-making, and the U.S. must harness future technology.

Changing change while it changes: The rise of disruptive military thinking (Part 3 of 3)

December 7, 2018December 18, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment Adaptation, civilian design, complexity, critical thinking, decision making, decisions, Design, domain, human-centric design, IBM, industrial design, innovation, Israel, methodology, military design, military education, military philosophy, planning, swarm theory, systemic operational design (SOD)

Militaries need to introduce design education as early as possible; cadets and privates need to experience design.

Changing change while it changes: The rise of disruptive military thinking (Part 2 of 3)

December 5, 2018December 16, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment Adaptation, Brigadier General Shimon Naveh, civilian design, complexity, critical thinking, decision making, decisions, Design, human-centric design, IBM, innovation, Israeli Defense Force (IDF), methodology, military design, military philosophy, Operation Defensive Shield, planning, systemic operational design (SOD)

Military design is about constantly changing, transforming, challenging, and disrupting.

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

Changing change while it changes: The rise of disruptive military thinking (Part 1 of 3)

December 3, 2018December 16, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment Big Data, center of gravity, complexity, critical thinking, decision making, decisions, Design, digital age, garden weeding, innovation, Key Words: IBM, methodology, military design, military philosophy, operational environment, planning

Many of the seemingly successful mechanical planning processes of the last two centuries are now holding us back

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Modernizing C2 of ISR – Part 2: Breaking ISR’s Industrial Age Chains

November 23, 2018December 9, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments aerospace, air and space operations center, air component, air force, airpower, AOC, C2, CAOC, CFACC, Claire Chennault, CMA, collection management authority, collection operations management, collection requirements management, COM, combat cloud, command and control, CRM, data analytics, decision making, Desert Storm, F-22, F-35, Hap Arnold, IC21, indivisibility of ISR, Information Age, intelligence, Intelligence Community in the 21st Century, ISR, ISR Tactical Controller, ITC, Joint Force, multi-domain C2, Norman Schwarzkopf, OODA Loop, OTH, over the horizon, professionalization, reconnaissance, sensor, sensor-shooter, surveillance, Thomas DeWitt Milling, United States Air Force, usaf

Theater-level ISR C2 must be modernized to ensure the Joint Force is prepared for a complex future and can achieve multi-domain success.

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

Multi Domain Operations

Command & Control of Tomorrow’s War: Why Decisive Mission Commanders are Key to Multi-Domain Operations

October 1, 2018October 21, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment abm, air force, command, decision making, Leadership, MDC2, OIR, tac c2

As tactical-level warfare evolves, the emerging security environment will likely drive a level of chaos and friction that has not happened in recent conflicts. To effectively execute MDO in a contested environment, preparing Mission Commanders to act decisively will be essential.

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

Avoiding the Early Bird– Innovation in the US Air Force

July 11, 2018July 19, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments acquisitions, AFWERX, air force, decision making, innovation, Policy

“The early bird gets the worm. The early worm… gets eaten” – Norm Augustine With support from the highest levels

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

OTH Video: Interview with Lt Gen Jeff “Cobra” Harrigian

June 20, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments AFCENT, Afghanistan, air component, Authorities, c4isr, CAOC, CENTCOM, CJTF_OIR, command and control, Data Fusion, decision making, Distributed Operations, Future AOC, innovation, Integration, Open Architecture, People, Shared Understanding, Tags: Multi Domain Operations, Tool Optimization, trust

At the end of the day it’s about killing and surviving. To do that, we’ve got to go faster and think beyond just air, space, and cyber.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Lt Gen Deptula Remarks – OTH Speaker Series – Aerospace Power in an Age of Uncertainty

February 28, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment ACSC, aerospace, air and space operations center, Air Command and Staff College, air component, air force, Air University, Air War College, airpower, AOC, army, AU, AWC, C2, CAOC, CFACC, combat cloud, command and control, cyber, data analytics, David Deptula, decision making, Deptula, effects based operations, F-22, F-35, Goldfein, goldwaters-nichols, Gulf War, indivisibility of ISR, information, Information Age, intelligence, ISR, Joint Force, Marines, multi-domain C2, nation security, navy, nuclear forces, OODA Loop, OTH, over the horizon, reconnaissance, sensor, sensor-shooter, space, surveillance, United States Air Force, usaf

Retired Lt Gen David Deptula shares his thoughts on the future of warfare-in particular, aerospace power in an age of uncertainty.

FIFTH GENERATION WARFARE: EMERGING NAVAL COMBAT CLOUDS

December 7, 2017December 21, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments Algorithmic Warfare, C2, combat cloud, Command & Control, Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC), decision making, Deptula, Fifth Generation, fusion warfare, future war, Layton, Maritime, Naval Integrated Fire Control - Counter Air (NIFC-CA), navy, strategy, technology, Warfare

Peter Layton explores how future warfighting concepts and network/combat cloud design are now interdependent – with the actual platform design of more secondary importance. He notes how, in moving to a fifth-generation force, networks and combat clouds are the fundamental building blocks and we need to get them right.

Interview with Lt Gen (Ret.) David Deptula: Part 3

November 3, 2017September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment aerospace, air and space operations center, air component, air force, airpower, AOC, C2, CAOC, CFACC, combat cloud, command and control, data analytics, David Deptula, decision making, Deptula, F-22, F-35, Goldfein, Goldwater, goldwaters-nichols, indivisibility of ISR, Information Age, intelligence, ISR, Joint Force, Martin, Mitchell Institute, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Moseley, multi-domain C2, Nichols, O'Shaughnessy, OODA Loop, OTH, over the horizon, reconnaissance, sensor, sensor-shooter, surveillance, United States Air Force, usaf

In an interview, Lt Gen David Deptula (Ret) shares his perspective on current and future challenges for USAF leaders and joint operations.

Interview with Lt Gen (Ret.) David Deptula: Part 2

November 1, 2017September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment aerospace, air and space operations center, air component, air force, airpower, AOC, C2, CAOC, CFACC, combat cloud, command and control, data analytics, David Deptula, decision making, Deptula, F-22, F-35, Goldfein, Goldwater, goldwaters-nichols, indivisibility of ISR, Information Age, intelligence, ISR, Joint Force, Martin, Mitchell Institute, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Mosely, multi-domain C2, Nichols, O'Shaughnessy, OODA Loop, OTH, over the horizon, reconnaissance, sensor, sensor-shooter, surveillance, United States Air Force, usaf

Lt Gen David Deptula (Ret) shares his perspective on the Combat Cloud, ISR, and the need for airmen to serve as joint warfighting commanders.

OTH Interview of Lt Gen David Deptula, USAF (Ret): Part 1

October 18, 2017September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 4 Comments aerospace, air and space operations center, air component, air force, airpower, AOC, C2, CAOC, CFACC, combat cloud, command and control, data analytics, David Deptula, decision making, Deptula, F-22, F-35, Goldfein, Goldwaters, goldwaters-nichols, indivisibility of ISR, Information Age, intelligence, ISR, Joint Force, multi-domain C2, Nichols, OODA Loop, OTH, over the horizon, reconnaissance, sensor, sensor-shooter, surveillance, United States Air Force, usaf

In an interview, Lt Gen David Deptula (Ret) shares his perspective on current and future challenges for the USAF leaders and the Joint Force.

Drop Zone: OTH Interview with Lt Gen David Deptula, USAF (Ret.)

October 13, 2017October 13, 2017 Over The Horizon 1 Comment aerospace, air and space operations center, air component, air force, airpower, AOC, C2, CAOC, CFACC, combat cloud, command and control, data analytics, David Deptula, decision making, Deptula, F-22, F-35, Goldfein, Goldwater-Nichols, indivisibility of ISR, Information Age, intelligence, ISR, Joint Force, multi-domain C2, OODA Loop, OTH, over the horizon, reconnaissance, sensor, sensor-shooter, surveillance, United States Air Force, usaf

In a candid interview, retired Lt Gen David Deptula, shares his perspective on current and future challenges for USAF leaders and the Joint Force.

Combat Cloud: A High Tech Solution to a Low Tech Problem

May 24, 2017June 9, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments combat cloud, decision making, information collection, ISR, Military Decision Cycle

Building a common operating picture from data stored in a cloud environment and creating the illusion of the availability of perfect information creates three large risks: joint forces become more vulnerable to Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS) attacks and reflexive control strategies; command, control, and execution become increasingly centralized; and an information-denied environment causes decision paralysis.
By Katrina Schweiker

DROP ZONE: Decision Making

May 19, 2017May 18, 2017 Over The Horizon 0 Comments air power, army, decision making, drop zone, dz, ISR, Military Decision Cycle

Innovation continues the quest to provide more perfect information and decrease the risk of making an incorrect decision.