OTH | china

Should the U.S. Consider a Belarusian Defense Relationship?

November 13, 2020January 18, 2021 Over The Horizon 1 Comment Belarus, china, Europe, national security, NATO, partnerships, Russia

Abstract: Belarus has long been perceived by the United States as a client state of Russia. Signs that President Lukashenko sought to normalize relationships with the U.S. and NATO through more neutral defense posturing seems to be quickly reversing. The fallout from the Belarusian election and mass government crackdown has caused an unstable domestic situation that now threatens Eastern European security. Russia is now intervening on behalf of its own national security interests to administer control of the region and ensure its strongest military ally does not cede to the West. The United States must now explore options to either normalize the Belarusian-U.S. defense relationship, or risk the territory being in complete Russian control, further changing the security implications and defense posture in Eastern Europe. The following article explores how the United States can still seek options to normalize the Belarusian-U.S. defense relationship amid domestic tensions as a way to work in solidarity with European partners, deliberately extend the competitive posture in Eastern Europe, and reaffirm the U.S. security guarantees for its European allies.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Achieving Strategic Advantage (Part 2 of 2)

September 23, 2020January 18, 2021 Over The Horizon 1 Comment acquisition, AI, artificial intelligence, autonomy, china, cyber, decision making, doctrine, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, joint, Leadership, national security, NATO, Policy, risk, Russia, strategy, technology

Executive Summary: Our previous article on supply chain competition and warfare explained how political, economic, and security issues unleash and restrain strategies of competitive advantage. China is waging all-effects warfare. Meanwhile, democratic states and the US compete with a self-imposed disadvantage: inferior operating strategy at the strategic level of significance. How can we compete and when necessary, wage superior complex warfare in kind?

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Fundamentals of Strategic Advantage (Part 1 of 2)

September 18, 2020January 18, 2021 Over The Horizon 1 Comment acquisition, AI, artificial intelligence, autonomy, china, cyber, decision making, doctrine, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, joint, Leadership, national security, NATO, Policy, risk, Russia, strategy, technology

Executive Summary: In the hands of authoritarian powers, supply chains are systematically weaponized into broad warfare that subsumes democracies’ traditionally narrow military approach. This series analyzes supply chain competition, warfare, and strategy in two parts. Part I discusses fundamentals that set strategic parameters for achieving an “all-effects” advantage: globalization and protectionism; strategies of national security; incentives and risks; and political and technological change. This broad perspective on competition and warfare is necessary to implement the cooperative and confrontational competition prescribed in the US National Security Strategy. Part II identifies decisions and makes recommendations to combine superior “all-effects” using diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and social instruments of power. This integrative perspective is necessary to synergize strategic advantages derived from the US National Defense Strategy and sixteen other national security-related strategies.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Cognitive Electronic Warfare: A Move Towards EMS Maneuver Warfare

July 3, 2020September 25, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment AI, air force, artificial intelligence, china, command and control, cyber, doctrine, human domain, joint, mdo, multi-domain, multi-domain operations, planning, Russia, space, technology, usaf

In multi-domain operations (MDO), control of the electromagnetic spectrum is of paramount importance. By leveraging machine learning technologies coupled to advanced Electronic Warfare techniques, a key first step will be taken in enabling maneuver warfare within the spectrum.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Do We Still Have a Coalition of the Willing? Reinforcing National Security through Dedicated Cultural Training

June 26, 2020August 27, 2020 Over The Horizon 0 Comments air force, army, CAOC, china, decision making, Design, intelligence, ISR, joint, Leadership, multi-domain, national security, NATO, planning, risk, Russia, strategy, usaf

The U.S. has been working with collation partners for decades to address matters of global and national security. Alongside over 80 partner nations, the U.S. has accomplished milestones in the Global Fight against ISIS, which would not have been possible without such a combined front. Part of these successes are due to the DoD’s shift a decade ago to incorporate partner nations in our military processes to fuse holistic intelligence for decisionmakers through multiple coalition intelligence cells around the world. As the battlespace continues to shift from years of counterinsurgency to face revisionist powers and rogue states, the personnel identified to fill critical positions that interact with coalition members will determine the successes of future conflicts. This essay will describe some recent advances the US Air Force has made toward improving coalition intelligence operations and recommend ways to improve selection and training programs in the future.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Communications in Multi-Domain Operations: What Does the BACN Bring?

June 24, 2020August 27, 2020 Over The Horizon 3 Comments A2/AD, acquisition, air force, c4isr, china, combat, command and control, decision making, doctrine, innovation, intelligence, ISR, joint, multi-domain operations, planning, Russia, space, technology, usaf

Communications are an important element of any military operation. A lack of infrastructure and rough terrain have hindered U.S. military operations in Afghanistan (2001-Present) and Iraq (2003-Present). The difficulties encountered in both countries initially led to several different ad hoc solutions for overcoming poor communications. Eventually a long-term solution emerged, known as BACN (Battlefield Airborne Communications Node) with two dedicated platforms, an E-11A and EQ-4B. This article provides new insights on the BACN program and its history, and considers the importance of E-11s providing BACN for future multi-domain warfighting environments. Finally, it encourages new ways of thinking on how to operate in a contested environment, proposing a “BACN-mesh” concept as a way of overcoming such a vulnerability with an adversary jamming the electromagnetic spectrum.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Defense Of The Homeland In A New Age, Part III

June 19, 2020June 28, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment ABMS, AGM-183, AGR-20A, air force, airpower, army, ballistic missile, china, COVID-19, cyber, Cyber-Attack, cyber-defense, deterrence, dod, domain, drug trafficking, EMP, EMS, GPS, Homeland Defense, human domain, human trafficking, Hypersonics, ICBM, Illegal immigration, innovation, Iran, JADC2, joint, MDC2, mdo, navy, NDS, North Korea, planning, PNT, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, Threat, USA, usaf, USN

Editor’s note: The following article is the third of a three-part series discussing necessary advancements which will best enable the Department of Defense to continue to lead during current and future periods of competition. Part I focused on the history of the current threats, Part II outlined areas of defense and civilian research which must be pursued, and Part III delves into the path forward for cohesive, joint application of technology and research.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Defense Of The Homeland In A New Age, Part II

June 17, 2020June 28, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment ABMS, air force, airpower, army, ballistic missile, china, COVID-19, cyber, Cyber-Attack, cyber-defense, deterrence, dod, domain, drug trafficking, EMP, EMS, GPS, Homeland Defense, human domain, human trafficking, Hypersonics, ICBM, Illegal immigration, innovation, Iran, JADC2, joint, MDC2, mdo, navy, NDS, North Korea, planning, PNT, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, Threat, USA, usaf, USN

Editor’s note: The following article is the second of a three-part series discussing necessary advancements which will best enable the Department of Defense to continue to lead during current and future periods of competition. Part I focused on the history of the current threats, Part II outlines areas of defense and civilian research which must be pursued, and Part III delves into the path forward for cohesive, joint application of technology and research.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Defense Of The Homeland In A New Age, Part I

June 15, 2020June 28, 2020 Over The Horizon 3 Comments ABMS, air force, airpower, army, ballistic missile, china, COVID-19, cyber, Cyber-Attack, cyber-defense, deterrence, dod, domain, drug trafficking, EMP, EMS, GPS, Homeland Defense, human domain, human trafficking, Hypersonics, ICBM, Illegal immigration, innovation, Iran, JADC2, joint, MDC2, mdo, navy, NDS, North Korea, planning, PNT, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, Threat, USA, usaf, USN

Editor’s note: The following article is the first of a three-part series discussing necessary advancements which will best enable the Department of Defense to continue to lead during current and future periods of competition. Part I briefly reviews threats America has faced thru history and those which it currently faces across all domains. Part II outlines areas of defense and civilian research which must be pursued, and Part III delves into the path forward for cohesive, joint application of technology and research.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Water Wars and Humanitarian Crises in Asia

June 8, 2020June 21, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment 2025, 2030, Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, asean, Asia, Bangladesh, china, competition, conflict, Cooperation, deterrence, Environment, Gulf of Aden, Humanitarian, India, Indian Ocean, Maritime, Pakistan, politics, Scarcity, Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, strategy, Thailand, Vietnam, Water

One half of the world’s population lives within Southeast Asia. The natural resources that allowed massive populations in past generations are now being stretched to their limit as those nations are industrializing. While regions such as the Middle East have struggled with water for decades, Southern Asia is facing a water crisis on a scale that cannot be matched in scope and impact to population. Current policy decisions and preparation will determine the way ahead; however, it remains likely that the next generation of Western militaries will spend their careers performing peacekeeping roles in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia. Rather than anti-piracy operations like those in the Gulf of Aden, peacekeeping operations will deter state-sponsored threats and defend key lines of communication to secure life-sustaining resources, specifically water, for billions of citizens.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Deepening the Cut: How China’s Genetic Warfare is Affecting International Relations

May 26, 2020June 14, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments air force, biology, Bioweapons, china, genetics, Policy, science

Gene editing is relatively new territory and is stretching to greater lengths than ever before. What continues to puzzle policymakers and global leaders—despite the expressed benefits—is just how far gene editing experimentation will go. Future developments will ultimately affect the earth’s entire population and international affairs. This article provides a historical context of biological warfare and shifts towards understanding the contemporary dangers of biological-genetic warfare, which are being advanced to dangerous heights by China.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Connect to Divide: Social Media in 21st Century Warfare

April 13, 2020June 14, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment china, cyber, disinformation, Electronic Warfare, Fake News, Gray Zone, Influence Operations, Information Operations, information warfare, Instruments of Power, politics, Psychological Operations, Russia, Social Manipulation, social media, technology

In 21st Century warfare, social media fuels influence through “likes,” “shares,” and “tweets” driving narratives that blur the lines of politics, law, war, peace, elections, and freedom of speech and press, creating an information crisis. The current lack of an adequate United States (US) response to this crisis threatens its democratic institutions and national security. Bolstering this emerging threat are social media platforms rewarding users for engaging as fast thinkers without regard for bias or manipulation that is being exploited by hostile state and non-state actors to create narratives resulting in the decay of truth. Compounding this problem is social media’s ability to transition influence from institutions and governments to the individual. Though social media-enabled information warfare alone may not be decisive in current and future conflicts, nations must prepare to counter its effects across all instruments of national power: diplomatic, information, military, and economic.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Human-led Machine Learning & Advanced Threats: Case Method Inquiry and Visual Analytics Applied to COVID-19

March 26, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment A2AD, acquisition, AI, airpower, analysis, Analytics, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, COVID, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, multi-domain operations, national security, Nodal, Nodal Analysis, node, Pandemic, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology

In a pervasive and complex information environment, analytics are vital to understanding advanced threats. As we rely more on machine-learnt results, asking the right questions and visualizing deep analysis are key to grasping and solving problems. These skills are also vital 21st century leadership tools that can forge a common focus among otherwise stove-piped specialists.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents an urgent threat that requires both scientific understanding and decisive leadership. The cause of the disease is SARS CoV-2, a mutating virus that thrives in conditions difficult to control at scale. To counter this threat, this article demonstrates in detail the potential of human-led case method and machine-provided visual analytics.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Artificial Intelligence in the Operational Information Environment: The Need for Proactive Doctrine

February 26, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments A2AD, ACE, acquisition, ACS, Agile Combat Employment, Agile Combat Support, AI, air force, airpower, army, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, joint, Leadership, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, mission command, Multi Domain, multi-domain operations, national security, OODA Loop, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, usaf

Joint operations doctrine omits the agency of artificial intelligence (AI) in the operational information environment, which is a problem. This commentary discusses why, and recommends effective changes. Key points are as follows. AI is becoming an autonomous cause of unanticipated effects. Humans are not the most effectively intelligent actors in all environments, yet our doctrine draws lessons from the past rather than anticipating emergent futures. Machines currently excel in experience-based learning and can discover relationships in data that we cannot discern. Humans can intuit, deceive, somewhat control, and manufacture and destroy machines. In time, AI will be able to perform those cognitive, informational and physical functions as well. As out-thought becomes out-fought, we need proactive doctrine now.

OTH, emerging security threats

Streamlining and Revitalizing the US Hypersonic Weapon Investment Strategy

January 22, 2020June 1, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments A2AD, acquisitions, china, Hypersonics, investment strategy, investments, Russia, strategy, Weapons

The current DoD hypersonic weapon investment strategy is untenable over the next three to four years which will widen the capability gap with Russia and China. The investment strategy needs to be streamlined based on acquisition, test, and fiscal realities to field a hypersonic weapon by 2023. In order to enable success, the DoD should begin to consolidate the hypersonic weapon efforts to one per service to help alleviate budgets, focus requirements, and reduce competition at test facilities.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

The 21st Century Scramble for Africa

November 27, 2019February 6, 2020 Over The Horizon 3 Comments Africa, Belt and Road Initiative, china, Great Power Competition, Russia

The 2017 National Security Strategy states that the United States is in a great power competition with China and Russia that spans the globe. China and Russia have been actively promoting their national interests in Africa and competing with the United States’ vision for the continent. The following analysis will examine China and Russia’s activities in Africa and explain why the United States should be concerned with their increased influence.

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations

Great Power Competition in the Western Hemisphere

October 1, 2019February 6, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment Belt and Road Initiative, china, Latin America, Monroe Doctrine, Russia, venezuela, Western Hemisphere

The 2017 National Security Strategy states that the United States is in great power competition with China and Russia that spans the world. China and Russia do not acknowledge the Monroe Doctrine’s assertion that the Western Hemisphere is the United States’ unchallenged sphere of influence and have been actively promoting their interests in the region. The following analysis will examine China and Russia’s activities in the Western Hemisphere in order to paint a picture of the breadth of influence operations that are being undertaken.

The United States must rebuild relationships with its allies and partners in the Western Hemisphere to mutually safeguard and protect the region. The problem should be framed as a common threat to regional stability and the United States should cooperate with its allies and partners on a peer-to-peer basis. The United States needs to be conscious of its stigma in Latin America as an imperial power that attempts to dictate foreign policy to others. The United States should strive to articulate why it offers the best model for future development and why China and Russia are harmful for the region.

OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain

Chicken Little’s Quantum Sky

July 23, 2019August 19, 2019 Over The Horizon 1 Comment china, cryptography, emerging technology, future tech, future technology, Great Power Competition, great power conflict, PRC competition, quantum, quantum communications, Quantum Computing, quantum radar, strategic messaging

The term “quantum” has been thrown around in the past few years to mean anything from extremely fast internet to the next wave in computing. The truth is “quantum” can be applied to a variety of technologies; but is all based off the theories of quantum mechanics, or how sub-atomic particles interact and behave. Like Schrödinger’s Cat, this abstract is quantum-based, it both exists and doesn’t exist, until you read it just now.

OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain

Post-INF Treaty: Likely US Military Outcomes and Implications

June 12, 2019August 19, 2019 Over The Horizon 0 Comments bomber, china, Hypersonic, ICBM, INF, IRBM, Missile, Nuclear, Russia, SRBM, UAV

What does a Post-INF world look like for the United States? An ensuing arms race is likely, leveraging new tech to counter Russia and China.

OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain

Preparing for the Unpredictable: Accident Management in Great Power Competition

May 6, 2019June 13, 2019 Over The Horizon 0 Comments accident management, china, decision making, Great Power Competition, mdo, multi-domain operations, Risk Management, Russia

This article identifies the potential of international accidents across domains and identifies factors decision makers must consider before/after an accident.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

A Bomber for the Navy

April 15, 2019April 24, 2019 Over The Horizon 31 Comments acquisition, air force, air-sea battle, airpower, bomber, china, culture, doctrine, innovation, multi-domain operations, national security, navy, risk, strategy

Rather that sending the B-1 Lancer into early retirement, the Department of Defense could transfer it to the Navy for duty as a land-based ship-killer.

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

The Unlikely Prospect of Long-Term Sino-Russian Cooperation: Points of Divergence in the Emerging Security Environment

February 6, 2019February 17, 2019 Over The Horizon 4 Comments china, demographics, immigration, mdo, Multi Domain Ops, Russia, Siberia, Water Scarcity

Can Russia & China expand the current military cooperation into a more in-depth partnership or will long-term trends induce shocks into that relationship driving the two nations apart?

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Fight Tonight: A Look at the USAF’s Ability to Prevail

November 26, 2018December 9, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment adversary, air force, china, deterrence, Near Peer, Russia, stealth, usaf

The Air Force is ready to deter, and if necessary prevail against a growing near-peer adversary willing to disrupt the international order.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis speaks with Raj Shah, then managing partner of Defense Innovation Unit Experimental (DIUx), at the organization’s headquarters in Mountain View, Calif., Aug. 10, 2017. DoD photo by Air Force Staff Sgt. Jette Carr

Featured Multi Domain Operations

Observations on the Pursuit of Artificial Intelligence in the DoD

November 14, 2018November 27, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments AI, artificial intelligence, china

By: Ryan Hilger Reading Time: 9 Minutes In May 2018, President Donald Trump, following several years of fretting over Russian

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

The B-2 in the Pacific: A Game of Tiger and Mouse

November 2, 2018November 18, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments adaptive basing, B-2, china, DF-26, INDOPACOM, low-observable, missile threat, PRC, stealth

China’s A2AD strategy presents US planners with a formidable task. A deployment of B-2 stealth bombers could be an adaption to the new threat.

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

China’s New Silk Road vs. America’s Platinum Highway in the Sky

September 24, 2018October 16, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments china, Economic Competition, space, Space Exploration

The following are remarks presented by the author at International Space Development Conference in May, 2018. Approximate Reading time: 8

Multi Domain Operations

The Undersea is a Discrete Operational Domain

September 19, 2018November 30, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments A2AD, china, domain, navy, submarines, undersea

The maritime domain as defined by joint doctrine is overly broad in concept and does not accurately capture the opportunities and vulnerabilities presented in the undersea.

OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment

Duelling Algorithms: Using Artificial Intelligence in Warfighting

April 25, 2018May 3, 2018 Over The Horizon 1 Comment AI, artificial intelligence, Big Data, china, Human-Machine Teaming, law of armed conflict, Machine learning, morality, PLA, Project Maven, robots, Russia, Skynet

Examining the dichotomy of AI employment in warfare-“Do things better?” or “Do better things?”-and other implementation challenges.

Featured Multi Domain Operations

21st Century Strategic Deterrence: “Beyond Nuclear”

March 26, 2018September 17, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments artificial intelligence, china, coercion, deterrence, Estonia, future tech, Georgia, Hypersonic, NATO, Nuclear, Quantum Computing, reflexive control, Russia, strategy

The U.S. needs to start writing the guidelines for 21st century strategic deterrence, focusing on methods beyond nuclear options.

Geopolitical Future of the South Caucasus

February 7, 2018February 13, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments Armenia, Azerbaijan, china, conflict, EU, GAAT, Georgia, Iran, Nagorno Karabakh, NATO, Russia, South Caucasus, Turkey, US

In the next five to ten years, the South Caucasus region will face a growing increase of Russian influence while witnessing a decrease in Western involvement.

Countering Hypersonic Threats with Directed Energy

January 24, 2018February 4, 2018 Over The Horizon 0 Comments china, Directed Energy, Hypersonics, Laser, Missile, technology, Weapons

In this article, the author presents an argument for a plausible defense for countering hypersonic threats through the use of directed energy.

China: Case Studies on Geoeconomics

March 15, 2017March 27, 2017 Over The Horizon 2 Comments asean, china, Design, geoeconomics, international, national security

If America expects to maintain its economic and military advantages around the globe, it must also reinforce existing diplomatic, economic, and military relationships to avoid a premature end to US global primacy.
By Aaron Sick and Mark Nexon