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Human-led Machine Learning & Advanced Threats: Case Method Inquiry and Visual Analytics Applied to COVID-19

March 26, 2020March 25, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment A2AD, acquisition, AI, airpower, analysis, Analytics, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, COVID, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, multi-domain operations, national security, Nodal, Nodal Analysis, node, Pandemic, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology

In a pervasive and complex information environment, analytics are vital to understanding advanced threats. As we rely more on machine-learnt results, asking the right questions and visualizing deep analysis are key to grasping and solving problems. These skills are also vital 21st century leadership tools that can forge a common focus among otherwise stove-piped specialists.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents an urgent threat that requires both scientific understanding and decisive leadership. The cause of the disease is SARS CoV-2, a mutating virus that thrives in conditions difficult to control at scale. To counter this threat, this article demonstrates in detail the potential of human-led case method and machine-provided visual analytics.

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Artificial Intelligence in the Operational Information Environment: The Need for Proactive Doctrine

February 26, 2020February 25, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments A2AD, ACE, acquisition, ACS, Agile Combat Employment, Agile Combat Support, AI, air force, airpower, army, artificial intelligence, autonomy, C2, c4isr, CAOC, china, combat cloud, command and control, culture, cyber, decision making, Design, DFE, doctrine, Dynamic Force Employment, human domain, Information Operations, information warfare, innovation, intelligence, ISR, JADC2, joint, Leadership, MDC2, mdo, MDOS, mission command, Multi Domain, multi-domain operations, national security, OODA Loop, planning, Policy, risk, Russia, space, strategy, technology, usaf

Joint operations doctrine omits the agency of artificial intelligence (AI) in the operational information environment, which is a problem. This commentary discusses why, and recommends effective changes. Key points are as follows. AI is becoming an autonomous cause of unanticipated effects. Humans are not the most effectively intelligent actors in all environments, yet our doctrine draws lessons from the past rather than anticipating emergent futures. Machines currently excel in experience-based learning and can discover relationships in data that we cannot discern. Humans can intuit, deceive, somewhat control, and manufacture and destroy machines. In time, AI will be able to perform those cognitive, informational and physical functions as well. As out-thought becomes out-fought, we need proactive doctrine now.

Streamlining and Revitalizing the US Hypersonic Weapon Investment Strategy

January 22, 2020January 27, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments A2AD, acquisitions, china, Hypersonics, investment strategy, investments, Russia, strategy, Weapons

The current DoD hypersonic weapon investment strategy is untenable over the next three to four years which will widen the capability gap with Russia and China. The investment strategy needs to be streamlined based on acquisition, test, and fiscal realities to field a hypersonic weapon by 2023. In order to enable success, the DoD should begin to consolidate the hypersonic weapon efforts to one per service to help alleviate budgets, focus requirements, and reduce competition at test facilities.

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The 21st Century Scramble for Africa

November 27, 2019February 6, 2020 Over The Horizon 2 Comments Africa, Belt and Road Initiative, china, Great Power Competition, Russia

The 2017 National Security Strategy states that the United States is in a great power competition with China and Russia that spans the globe. China and Russia have been actively promoting their national interests in Africa and competing with the United States’ vision for the continent. The following analysis will examine China and Russia’s activities in Africa and explain why the United States should be concerned with their increased influence.

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Great Power Competition in the Western Hemisphere

October 1, 2019February 6, 2020 Over The Horizon 1 Comment Belt and Road Initiative, china, Latin America, Monroe Doctrine, Russia, venezuela, Western Hemisphere

The 2017 National Security Strategy states that the United States is in great power competition with China and Russia that spans the world. China and Russia do not acknowledge the Monroe Doctrine’s assertion that the Western Hemisphere is the United States’ unchallenged sphere of influence and have been actively promoting their interests in the region. The following analysis will examine China and Russia’s activities in the Western Hemisphere in order to paint a picture of the breadth of influence operations that are being undertaken.

The United States must rebuild relationships with its allies and partners in the Western Hemisphere to mutually safeguard and protect the region. The problem should be framed as a common threat to regional stability and the United States should cooperate with its allies and partners on a peer-to-peer basis. The United States needs to be conscious of its stigma in Latin America as an imperial power that attempts to dictate foreign policy to others. The United States should strive to articulate why it offers the best model for future development and why China and Russia are harmful for the region.

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Chicken Little’s Quantum Sky

July 23, 2019August 19, 2019 Over The Horizon 1 Comment china, cryptography, emerging technology, future tech, future technology, Great Power Competition, great power conflict, PRC competition, quantum, quantum communications, Quantum Computing, quantum radar, strategic messaging

The term “quantum” has been thrown around in the past few years to mean anything from extremely fast internet to the next wave in computing. The truth is “quantum” can be applied to a variety of technologies; but is all based off the theories of quantum mechanics, or how sub-atomic particles interact and behave. Like Schrödinger’s Cat, this abstract is quantum-based, it both exists and doesn’t exist, until you read it just now.

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China: Case Studies on Geoeconomics

March 15, 2017March 27, 2017 Over The Horizon 2 Comments asean, china, Design, geoeconomics, international, national security

If America expects to maintain its economic and military advantages around the globe, it must also reinforce existing diplomatic, economic, and military relationships to avoid a premature end to US global primacy.
By Aaron Sick and Mark Nexon

china

Human-led Machine Learning & Advanced Threats: Case Method Inquiry and Visual Analytics Applied to COVID-19

Artificial Intelligence in the Operational Information Environment: The Need for Proactive Doctrine

Streamlining and Revitalizing the US Hypersonic Weapon Investment Strategy

The 21st Century Scramble for Africa

Great Power Competition in the Western Hemisphere

Chicken Little’s Quantum Sky

Post-INF Treaty: Likely US Military Outcomes and Implications

Preparing for the Unpredictable: Accident Management in Great Power Competition

A Bomber for the Navy

The Unlikely Prospect of Long-Term Sino-Russian Cooperation: Points of Divergence in the Emerging Security Environment

Fight Tonight: A Look at the USAF’s Ability to Prevail

Observations on the Pursuit of Artificial Intelligence in the DoD

The B-2 in the Pacific: A Game of Tiger and Mouse

China’s New Silk Road vs. America’s Platinum Highway in the Sky

The Undersea is a Discrete Operational Domain

Duelling Algorithms: Using Artificial Intelligence in Warfighting

21st Century Strategic Deterrence: “Beyond Nuclear”

Geopolitical Future of the South Caucasus

Countering Hypersonic Threats with Directed Energy

China: Case Studies on Geoeconomics

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