The Russian-Ukrainian War and Just War Theory
By Michael James Robblee Estimated Read Time: 11 Minutes As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, the world is all
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Author: Over The Horizon
The Birth of the Problem-Centric Sensor-Agnostic Methodology
Interested in the origins of the Problem-Centric Sensor-Agnostic methodology? Check out this article!
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Sense-Making in JADC2: AF ISR Driving Change
Abstract: As sensors blanket the earth, analysts find themselves drowning in data but starved for information. The Department of Defense (DoD) must smartly and quickly field artificial intelligence/machine learning, automation, and augmentation (AAA) capabilities that allow Airmen to make sense of the vast amount of data available when answering the Joint Force’s greatest problems. This article provides a roadmap explaining how sense-making Airmen (the means) enabled by AAA solutions (the methods) and an integrated battle network (the capabilities) is the change the military needs to compete against our technologically advanced adversaries and to execute Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) operations. The catch is that JADC2 is not an unimaginable concept to comprehend. Analysis and Exploitation Teams (AETs) enabled by initial AAA initiatives, a global architecture, partners, and accesses are already realizing JADC2 operations to a limited extent in theater. The military must realize these initial successes and aggressively innovate to maintain a strategic advantage against peer competitors. China is a world leader in advanced technologies and continues their quest to become a global leader in innovation; the United States must keep pace.
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Hypersonic Airspace: How Hypersonic Weapons Conquer and Define the Realm Between Airspace and Space
With their challenging trajectories, hypersonic weapons challenge the existing international space and airspace structure and blur the line between airspace and space. Therefore, the existing set of rules, habits, and practices in airspace and space need a mutual rethinking. Introducing “hypersonic airspace” as a buffer zone between space and airspace could help cope with this challenge.
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The Battle for Latin America
In September 1901, hundreds gathered at the Minnesota State Fair to hear from then Vice President, Theodore Roosevelt. He used the opportunity to discuss the topic of national duties and the inevitability of involvement with foreign adversaries. Roosevelt referred to a widely known adage “speak softly and carry a big stick,” suggesting that only through the ability of the United States to substantiate its claims through action would it continue to see success. Today, the United States’ national interests demand an ability to balance stated political objectives with the physical means and willingness to achieve them.
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David Epstein’s RANGE – Specialization and Cross-Domain Problem Solving: What it Might Mean for Education, Training, and Problem Solving in the Armed Forces
Abstract: Discusses David Epstein’s analysis of cross-domain expertise, and breadth, raised in his recent book, extending the author’s observations and arguments and applying them to planning and professional military education
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Artificial Intelligence in Space: Providing Near Real-Time Threat Analysis
Considering the growth in space technology coupled with the rise in economic interest in the arena, it is no surprise that many countries and commercial enterprises are vying for a competitive advantage against their peers. This competitive drive has forced the United States (US) to acknowledge they are no longer the dominant player in the space domain. As such, the US must develop and embrace advanced technologies to protect vital US interests in space, ensure space remains open to all, and limit hostile aggressions that hinder freedom of movement. One such technology that shows significant promise in the space domain is artificial intelligence (AI). The US can employ AI in multiple phases of space operations, including space launch and trajectory, space debris tracking, and space defense. This article will focus primarily on the employment of AI to bolster space defense capabilities. It will explore how the US can employ AI and what issues arise.
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Why the Department of Defense Should Create an AI Red Team
What is adversarial machine learning (AML)? AML is the purposeful manipulation of data or code to cause a machine learning (ML) algorithm to misfunction or present false predictions. A popular example of AML is from a team at Google that carried out an experiment on GoogLeNet, a convolutional neural network architecture that won the ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge in 2014. Adding noise to an image of a panda and digitally changing its characteristic led the program to more highly predict that the image was a gibbon. This type of manipulation is relatively easy to execute with just a few bits of code inserted into the original algorithm.
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The Third Road Threat: Towards a Comprehensive Theory of Information Warfare (Part 4/4)
Abstract: The conclusion of this four-part essay series on Information Warfare, this section provides recommendations for how the US government might mitigate information aggression though both military and civilian action beginning with the recommendation to establish a doctrinal framework for thinking, communicating, planning, and acting within the information environment while organizing to meet the threat.
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The ISR Traffic Jam: How to Improve ISR Operations in INDOPACOM
As the United States pulls ISR assets from Afghanistan and shifts its focus to the Pacific, some will argue for the same failed ISR strategies that CENTCOM followed for over a decade. Like the build bigger roads argument for solving traffic, there will be a desire in INDOPACOM to throw more and more ISR assets into the theater to solve intelligence gaps. This paper highlights why this line of reasoning is flawed and offers a way ahead for INDOPACOM ISR mission planners.
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The Third Road Threat: Towards a Comprehensive Theory of Information Warfare (Part 3/4)
Abstract: This third essay demonstrates the utility of the IW taxonomy developed in part two to a critical analysis of China’s Information Warfare efforts.
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The Third Road Threat: Towards a Comprehensive Theory of Information Warfare (Part 2/4)
Abstract: This second of four essays develops a taxonomy, attack vectors, definition and theory of victory for information warfare developed from first principles of information theory.
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The Third Road Threat: Towards a Comprehensive Theory of Information Warfare (Part 1/4)
Abstract: America’s adversaries are waging a decades-long information war calibrated to advance their national interests at the expense of the United States while avoiding direct and decisive conflict with the US military. Key to their strategy is exploiting ubiquitous, high-speed connectivity to directly access the American people, a national center of gravity. Simultaneously, the US government is poorly organized to engage in information conflict, lacking a unified theory, definition, doctrine, and organizational structure for Information Warfare (IW). This four-part essay develops a theory of IW using first principles of information theory. It presents a novel IW definition, taxonomy, attack vectors, and theory of victory to inform how the United States thinks and competes within the information environment and concludes with recommendations for how the United States might compete in the information war through military and civilian action. This first of four essays establishes a historical basis for thinking about information warfare as a key component of conflict from the earliest recorded battles to today.
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Why the AOC Cannot Execute JADC2
Abstract: After a successful debut during the Gulf War, the Air Operations Center (AOC) is at the heart of how the US Air Force executes operational command and control. As the drive for a Joint All Domain Command and Control (JADC2) solution increases, the easy solution of making an AOC more joint will not be enough for the future of all domain warfare.
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Disabled Weapons and Confounded Adversaries
EW is an integral part of 21st century hybrid wars and, asymmetric adversaries are investing in EW. Control of the electromagnetic spectrum is a critical objective in the success of modern military operations at all levels of conflict.
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“Free and Open Indo-Pacific” – Exploring the Sine Quo Non of the Quad
Abstract: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) has intermittently tried to shape a credible relationship between the participating members in the Indo-Pacific Region. This piece aims to explore the prominence of the Quad and steps that these countries can take to maintain their relevance in the present geopolitical landscape.
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Intelligence Automation: A Simple Way to Innovate then Dominate
Abstract: Advances in modern technology have drastically increased the amount of data that is made available for the Air Force and Intelligence Community to interact with. The abundance of information impedes our ability to provide results as there is not enough manpower to work through the ever-expanding material at one’s disposal. In order to overcome the information saturated environment and the insufficient resources required to meet it, I will demonstrate that automation will solve this problem and how, through proper collaboration, to develop and implement automated solutions.
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The Power of Truth: How to Compete with Information Warfare
Abstract: The United States Air Force (USAF) must leverage truth to defuse adversarial claims to plausible deniability. A fictional scenario of an RC-135 shootdown by a Russian private military company (PMC) conveys the implications of failure with information warfare (IW). Today, the USAF lacks the ability to counter plausible deniability in the information environment with the tempo and speed required to outpace and outthink its adversaries. Three recommendations are offered. First, the USAF should operate outside of current geographic constraints. Second, the USAF should shift to a problem-centric strategy independent of intelligence collection platforms. Lastly, the USAF should shift its information warfare posture from reactive to proactive in today’s dynamic information environment.
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What’s Old is New Again: Leveraging Lessons from the Battle of Britain
Abstract: In today’s rapidly evolving security environment, the traditional development and acquisitions system is falling short of meeting warfighter needs. Even as technology becomes increasingly disruptive, the U.S. Department of Defense should look to the lessons of the past to provide a foundational construct for on-boarding novel technologies and innovative concepts. The reemergence of dual use technologies is far from new; however, harnessing development efforts from the private sector and tech industry could slingshot multi-domain capabilities forward into the 21st century and address many of the shortfalls inherent to the DoD’s current bureaucracy.
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Towards a Strategic Value Proposition: Redefining 21st Century Defense Priority Assessments
Abstract: U.S. strategic priorities are flawed. Measures of ‘strategic value’ are superficial and lack analytical depth. When asking academics, practitioners, and policymakers “What is the most strategically valuable region in the world?” we receive divergent answers. Then asking “How did you determine this value?” answers diverge further. We tend to assess strategic value on measures like gross domestic product and population. No doubt these are significant indicators, but are they the only indicators of relevance in determining the strategic value of one region relative to another? What other factors does the United States consider to inform strategic priorities? We argue that the U.S. applies more subjective than objective measure to assess strategic value and thus projects power on the basis of questionable logic. With that, we propose a new method to determine relative strategic value – the Strategic Value Proposition – that can reshape our military power projection thinking to address emerging security issues.
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Rethinking Warfare in a Changing World: The Case For Expanding Doctrinal Warfare Principles
Abstract: The warfare concepts and principles named in seminal works such as Carl von Clausewitz’s On War and codified in military doctrine remain vital to the United States’ conduct of modern warfare. However, constantly changing global diplomatic, military, economic, and societal factors necessitate the evolution of the “American way of war,” which focuses on attrition warfare and the creation of new joint warfare principles. The shifting dynamics of world politics require additional doctrinal principles of strategic anchoring, knowledge, collaboration, rapid decision-making and synchronization, decentralized command and control, and stability to ensure the US retains its military advantage.
Read moreEditor’s Choice: Geoeconomics with Jennifer Harris – OTH
The Editor’s Choice series revisits OTH classics and articles with enduring relevance.
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The $32,000 Hamburger – Macroeconomic analysis can rapidly contextualize foreign military expenses
In The 32k Hamburger, Jeff Wright proposes a novel analytical technique to rapidly contextualize military hardware expenses by using comparative Gross Domestic Products for the nations in question.
The title comes from one such example – when we ask a Nigerien colleague to meet us for a hamburger off base, we impose on her treasury a cost equivalent to $32,000 from the United States point of view. Aerospace examples are even more alarming – what do you suppose is the American equivalent of a single C-130H’s impact on Niger’s treasury? Read on to find out!
Symbolism, Serendipity, and Strategic Wisdom: The Origin Story of a New Set of Wings
Estimated Time to Read: 8 minutes By Jason “Toga” Trew In 2016, US Air Force Chief of Staff, General Goldfein
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Blockchain and Psychological Operations
Since the 2016 US presidential election, there is a greater appreciation and increased appetite for information operations across the US government and within the intelligence community. While this enthusiasm is welcome, one of the central problems in waging this information warfare is the ability to execute swift actions in the information environment. This article will detail the doctrinal, structural, and philosophical problems within the current Psychological Operations approval process and provide a recommended solution, which incorporates blockchain technologies, to expedite the process.
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Regain EMS Dominance By Measuring Effectiveness Right
Non-Kinetic Effects (NKE) do not have accepted measures of Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) and never will. New ways of measuring effectiveness are required to ensure Joint Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS) dominance. Time to Effect (TTE) revitalizes Boyd’s Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) loop to inform modern kill chains. Sensor Rating (SR) borrows from the National Football League’s Passer Rating to measure sensor effectiveness. TTE and SR fill a growing gap and will enable better integration and execution of NKE.
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Ideologies, Cults of Personality, and the Center of Gravity
Abstract: The broad doctrinal definition of Center of Gravity (COG) currently allows an array of considerations for the strategic COG, including individuals, locations, ideologies. While this may appear to be a prudent allowance by doctrine writers, the full gamut of options can lead strategic planners to red herring target(s). This article examines the fallacies associated with an intangible strategic COG and advocates for the adoption of Dale’s Eikmeier’s COG definition.
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Defining the Cognitive Domain
Abstract: The ubiquity and automation of social networks now makes it possible for public discourse to be manipulated at machine speed. The Battle for Hearts and Minds in the next war could be won or lost without a shot being fired, before even the vanquished party recognises that their interests are threatened. However, there is little consensus among Western scholars or security officials particularly about location and characteristics of the battlefield. This gap in the literature precludes the development of policy, strategy, and capability to prevail on it. This article situates the battle in the hive minds of audiences — the collective perception of a situation held by a group, defined as the cognitive domain. Finally, the article asserts that the cognitive domain is both threatened and vital ground and therefore should be considered a warfighting domain in its own right.
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AF DCGS Next Generation: Transformation for Great Power Competition
Abstract: The AF DCGS is in the midst of the most significant transformation it has seen since its inception in the mid-1990s. Primarily driven by the need to find a way to more efficiently process the glut of data now available to the intelligence community, the AF DCGS transformation to the problem-centric model of analysis is already paying major dividends in the Enterprise’s ability to provide enhanced intelligence to its customers. This article discusses the transformation and describes in detail how the AF DCGS is now oriented to prepare the air component for great power competition.
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Should the U.S. Consider a Belarusian Defense Relationship?
Abstract: Belarus has long been perceived by the United States as a client state of Russia. Signs that President Lukashenko sought to normalize relationships with the U.S. and NATO through more neutral defense posturing seems to be quickly reversing. The fallout from the Belarusian election and mass government crackdown has caused an unstable domestic situation that now threatens Eastern European security. Russia is now intervening on behalf of its own national security interests to administer control of the region and ensure its strongest military ally does not cede to the West. The United States must now explore options to either normalize the Belarusian-U.S. defense relationship, or risk the territory being in complete Russian control, further changing the security implications and defense posture in Eastern Europe. The following article explores how the United States can still seek options to normalize the Belarusian-U.S. defense relationship amid domestic tensions as a way to work in solidarity with European partners, deliberately extend the competitive posture in Eastern Europe, and reaffirm the U.S. security guarantees for its European allies.
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Gain and Maintain Acquisitions Superiority: Why the USAF Needs to Deliver Faster, Fail Smarter, and Innovate Better
Abstract: The US’s near-peer competitors are closing capabilities gaps by rapidly acquiring new technologies deliberately designed to challenge the US Air Force’s air superiority. One main reason for this “capabilities closure” is the slow and risk-averse nature of the Department of Defense’s acquisitions process. But even within the limitations of the DoD’s system, tThe USAF can increase the effectiveness of its acquisitions by prioritizing speed of delivery, accepting and managing the increased risk of failure, and incorporating innovative ideas as core acquisitions priorities. Aggressively adopting these three focus areas may help the USAF to retain – or even expand – its comparative military advantage against near-peer competitors.
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DCGS Next Generation: Accelerating Change to Deliver Decision Advantage
By Kelly Borukhovich and Tyler Morton Approximate reading time: 11 minutes Abstract: The DCGS Next Generation (DCGS Next Gen) delivers
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Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Achieving Strategic Advantage (Part 2 of 2)
Executive Summary: Our previous article on supply chain competition and warfare explained how political, economic, and security issues unleash and restrain strategies of competitive advantage. China is waging all-effects warfare. Meanwhile, democratic states and the US compete with a self-imposed disadvantage: inferior operating strategy at the strategic level of significance. How can we compete and when necessary, wage superior complex warfare in kind?
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Supply Chain Competition and All-Effects Warfare: Fundamentals of Strategic Advantage (Part 1 of 2)
Executive Summary: In the hands of authoritarian powers, supply chains are systematically weaponized into broad warfare that subsumes democracies’ traditionally narrow military approach. This series analyzes supply chain competition, warfare, and strategy in two parts. Part I discusses fundamentals that set strategic parameters for achieving an “all-effects” advantage: globalization and protectionism; strategies of national security; incentives and risks; and political and technological change. This broad perspective on competition and warfare is necessary to implement the cooperative and confrontational competition prescribed in the US National Security Strategy. Part II identifies decisions and makes recommendations to combine superior “all-effects” using diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and social instruments of power. This integrative perspective is necessary to synergize strategic advantages derived from the US National Defense Strategy and sixteen other national security-related strategies.
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Information Warfare on United States’ Citizens: How China Weaponized COVID-19
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is conducting an information warfare (IW) campaign against the United States (U.S.) and other strategic competitors in an attempt to protect its interests and limit its strategic losses caused by COVID-19. The PRC went through great lengths to misrepresent the severity of the virus and suppress information that would have potentially helped the international community. Once it realized it could no longer suppress this emerging threat, it shifted its IW campaign to projecting misinformation and blaming the U.S. for the virus’ rapid spread. The following assessment categorizes the PRCs IW campaign and briefly highlights the growing need for a whole of government approach to protect the U.S against adversary IW campaigns.
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Métis: Strategic Sense for a Wicked World
Abstract: The U.S. defense community regularly acknowledges changes in the character of modern warfare. These observations are often coupled with a variety of recommendations, such as creating more strategic thinkers and cultivating more agile service cultures. This article highlights the tangled interactions between these two challenges as well as a third: harnessing the power of storytelling. First, stories both reflect and influence an organization’s culture, and are therefore a useful tool for strategic thinkers. Second, when it comes to strategic thinking, the typical descriptions and illustrations used by defense professionals are incomplete and biased. Missing from this list of examples, for instance, is someone from the origins of Western civilization who personified the wisdom to convert “insight into a decisive asymmetry.” This ancient role model not only exemplifies the strategic sense necessary to prepare the joint force’s culture for modern operating environments, but is also closely linked to the third element of this trinity – storytelling.
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Cognitive Electronic Warfare: A Move Towards EMS Maneuver Warfare
In multi-domain operations (MDO), control of the electromagnetic spectrum is of paramount importance. By leveraging machine learning technologies coupled to advanced Electronic Warfare techniques, a key first step will be taken in enabling maneuver warfare within the spectrum.
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Upgrading the Future Joint Force Leader: Three Recommendations for Joint Education: Part 2
The Joint force is pursuing innovative ways to reshape Joint Professional Military Education (JPME) as part of a larger effort to prepare leaders for the future security environment. The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) recently published a new Officer Professional Military Education Policy (OPMEP) and guidance for “Developing Today’s Joint Officers for Tomorrow’s Ways of War,” but also admit that the process is iterative and must be continually reassessed to ensure relevance. This is the second of a two-part series which provides three recommendations in line with this guidance. Those recommendations include incorporating “…hunger for knowledge…” as a Desired Leader Attribute (DLA), incorporation of Dr. Jeffrey Reilly’s “Strategic Design” methodology within the curriculum, and additional Joint All Domain (JAD) maneuver instruction and wargames. These suggestions would assist JPME in developing future operational and strategic leaders. PART 1 discussed the first recommendation; PART 2 discusses the second two recommendations.
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Upgrading the Future Joint Force Leader: Three Recommendations for Joint Education: Part 1
The Joint Force is pursuing innovative ways to reshape Joint Professional Military Education (JPME) as part of a larger effort to prepare leaders for the future security environment. The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) recently published a new Officer Professional Military Education Policy (OPMEP) and guidance for “Developing Today’s Joint Officers for Tomorrow’s Ways of War,” but also admit that the process is iterative and must be continually reassessed to ensure relevance. This is the first of a two-part series which provides three recommendations in line with this guidance. Those recommendations include incorporating “…hunger for knowledge…” as a Desired Leader Attribute (DLA), incorporation of Dr. Jeffrey Reilly’s “Strategic Design” methodology within the curriculum, and additional Joint All Domain (JAD) maneuver instruction and wargames. These suggestions would assist JPME in developing future operational and strategic leaders. PART 1 discusses the first recommendation; PART 2 discusses the second two recommendations.
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Do We Still Have a Coalition of the Willing? Reinforcing National Security through Dedicated Cultural Training
The U.S. has been working with collation partners for decades to address matters of global and national security. Alongside over 80 partner nations, the U.S. has accomplished milestones in the Global Fight against ISIS, which would not have been possible without such a combined front. Part of these successes are due to the DoD’s shift a decade ago to incorporate partner nations in our military processes to fuse holistic intelligence for decisionmakers through multiple coalition intelligence cells around the world. As the battlespace continues to shift from years of counterinsurgency to face revisionist powers and rogue states, the personnel identified to fill critical positions that interact with coalition members will determine the successes of future conflicts. This essay will describe some recent advances the US Air Force has made toward improving coalition intelligence operations and recommend ways to improve selection and training programs in the future.
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Communications in Multi-Domain Operations: What Does the BACN Bring?
Communications are an important element of any military operation. A lack of infrastructure and rough terrain have hindered U.S. military operations in Afghanistan (2001-Present) and Iraq (2003-Present). The difficulties encountered in both countries initially led to several different ad hoc solutions for overcoming poor communications. Eventually a long-term solution emerged, known as BACN (Battlefield Airborne Communications Node) with two dedicated platforms, an E-11A and EQ-4B. This article provides new insights on the BACN program and its history, and considers the importance of E-11s providing BACN for future multi-domain warfighting environments. Finally, it encourages new ways of thinking on how to operate in a contested environment, proposing a “BACN-mesh” concept as a way of overcoming such a vulnerability with an adversary jamming the electromagnetic spectrum.
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War is a Learning Competition: How a Culture of Debrief Can Improve Multi-Domain Operations
The Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) community continues to evolve and progress. MDO is, and will be the fundamental enabler for Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) and the way our nation fights future wars. As the maturing community integrates new concepts and processes, Multi-Domain Operators must identify and engrain the valuable lessons along the way. Creating a set of standards to capture feedback and drive improvement is vital for development in any organization. The debrief culture of the US Air Force fighter community, among others, is well known for its direct, highly effective feedback and learning methods. This type of focused feedback is important to the fighter community because the debrief is where the majority of learning takes place. The MDO community would benefit greatly by utilizing this debrief culture as a model from which to develop its own unique culture of consistent, iterative improvement. Because a standard day, or sortie-equivalent, is not yet fully fleshed out for Multi-Domain Operators, the purpose of this paper is to convey the necessity for debriefing lessons learned, and provide best practices in their current form. The ultimate objective is to create a foundation for the MDO community to adapt these practices as the details and nuance of its daily execution become more specific and clear.
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Defense Of The Homeland In A New Age, Part III
Editor’s note: The following article is the third of a three-part series discussing necessary advancements which will best enable the Department of Defense to continue to lead during current and future periods of competition. Part I focused on the history of the current threats, Part II outlined areas of defense and civilian research which must be pursued, and Part III delves into the path forward for cohesive, joint application of technology and research.
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Defense Of The Homeland In A New Age, Part II
Editor’s note: The following article is the second of a three-part series discussing necessary advancements which will best enable the Department of Defense to continue to lead during current and future periods of competition. Part I focused on the history of the current threats, Part II outlines areas of defense and civilian research which must be pursued, and Part III delves into the path forward for cohesive, joint application of technology and research.
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Defense Of The Homeland In A New Age, Part I
Editor’s note: The following article is the first of a three-part series discussing necessary advancements which will best enable the Department of Defense to continue to lead during current and future periods of competition. Part I briefly reviews threats America has faced thru history and those which it currently faces across all domains. Part II outlines areas of defense and civilian research which must be pursued, and Part III delves into the path forward for cohesive, joint application of technology and research.
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Dust
Science Fiction has always been a vehicle to the future. In the modern era of conversations about complexity, AI, human machine interfaces, and other exotic ideas, the genre can provide a way to stitch things together. We can take all of these disparate developments, operating concepts, and fuzzy ideas and combine them the same way our ancestors made sense of the word: with a story. At the strategic level, the two nations in conflict here have taken a markedly different approach to developing today’s technological trends. The enemy nation of Donovia has invested heavily in autonomous systems and artificial intelligence (AI), taking a bet that they can teach and grow better algorithms. Christopherson’s side, however, has taken a more balanced approach to integrating AI and autonomy by preserving man-on-the-loop for action and keeping their strategic level AI providing intelligence fusion. Different strategies will influence the future of technology development, but more importantly strategy will dictate how we use those technologies.
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Building Bridges Instead of Breaking Glass: What Past Scientific Revolutions Suggest About Creating Collaborative Transformation
By: Peter Hickman Approximate Reading Time: 15 minutes The Air Force’s Advanced Battle Management System is a transformative effort that
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Water Wars and Humanitarian Crises in Asia
One half of the world’s population lives within Southeast Asia. The natural resources that allowed massive populations in past generations are now being stretched to their limit as those nations are industrializing. While regions such as the Middle East have struggled with water for decades, Southern Asia is facing a water crisis on a scale that cannot be matched in scope and impact to population. Current policy decisions and preparation will determine the way ahead; however, it remains likely that the next generation of Western militaries will spend their careers performing peacekeeping roles in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia. Rather than anti-piracy operations like those in the Gulf of Aden, peacekeeping operations will deter state-sponsored threats and defend key lines of communication to secure life-sustaining resources, specifically water, for billions of citizens.
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Command in Complexity: Scaling Trust for Effective Joint All Domain Operations
Complex environments necessitate a high level of trust for effective command and control. Special Operations Forces have leveraged their ability to form personal relationships to generate trust and achieve high performing teams. While they cannot rely on personal relationships, conventional forces must also find a way to forge trust to enable effective Joint All Domain Operations. They can do this through strategic education, rapid and relevant doctrine, and shared experiences, all of which require an institutional level focus at all levels of the joint force.
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The Evolution of the Air Aggressor
Current USAF Aggressor airframes lack the capability to effectively replicate the operational advanced fighter weapon systems fielded by near-peer adversaries China and Russia. Additionally, with only two Air Aggressor squadrons across the USAF, there is a lack of requisite capacity to fully support the advanced air-to-air training requirements of the Combat Air Force. Despite initiatives such as the Air Combat Command Advanced Adversary Air contract awarded in October of 2019 and plans to establish an F-35A Aggressor Squadron at Nellis Air Force Base, the Aggressors will likely still lack the necessary capacity to support a routine and robust advanced air-to-air training environment. These issues highlight a need to not only modernize the current fleet of Aggressor F-16Cs, but to also seek an innovative approach to acquire an affordable, indigenous, advanced replication capability within the USAF. Procurement of a 5th generation fighter-type unmanned aerial system, the Aggressor UAS, developed to augment manned Aggressors with advanced adversary replication would not only solve current capability and capacity shortfalls, but also posture the USAF Aggressors to satisfy future adversary replication requirements.
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