Author: Over The Horizon

OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Featured New 

Deepening the Cut: How China’s Genetic Warfare is Affecting International Relations

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Gene editing is relatively new territory and is stretching to greater lengths than ever before. What continues to puzzle policymakers and global leaders—despite the expressed benefits—is just how far gene editing experimentation will go. Future developments will ultimately affect the earth’s entire population and international affairs. This article provides a historical context of biological warfare and shifts towards understanding the contemporary dangers of biological-genetic warfare, which are being advanced to dangerous heights by China.

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Infrastructure Readiness in USSF
Featured New 

Infrastructure Readiness In The United States Space Force

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The men and women of the US military have been protecting and defending the space domain for decades—well before the existence of the United States Space Force. Evolving threats in space drive the country to think differently about how we protect and defend that domain to ensure freedom of maneuver for future generations. Protection begins in facilities supported by robust infrastructure systems that house command and control nodes for space operators worldwide. USSF’s civil engineers have created new standards and are implementing them to measure and track readiness of the facilities and infrastructure directly supporting and inextricably linked to mission success in space.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environments, Multi-Domain
New 

Beyond Advice – Operationalizing the Light Attack Aircraft

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The Light Attack Aircraft (LAA) is a useful asset to help partner nations provide sustainable air support in irregular conflicts as the US Air Force increasingly shifts focus to near-peer competition. To turn the LAA into an effective security cooperation tool, the US Air Force must work through the intellectual side of the problem, which will include working with partners to develop sustainable concepts that maximize the utility of light attack capabilities in their unique irregular conflicts.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Featured Multi Domain Operations New 

Connect to Divide: Social Media in 21st Century Warfare

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In 21st Century warfare, social media fuels influence through “likes,” “shares,” and “tweets” driving narratives that blur the lines of politics, law, war, peace, elections, and freedom of speech and press, creating an information crisis. The current lack of an adequate United States (US) response to this crisis threatens its democratic institutions and national security. Bolstering this emerging threat are social media platforms rewarding users for engaging as fast thinkers without regard for bias or manipulation that is being exploited by hostile state and non-state actors to create narratives resulting in the decay of truth. Compounding this problem is social media’s ability to transition influence from institutions and governments to the individual. Though social media-enabled information warfare alone may not be decisive in current and future conflicts, nations must prepare to counter its effects across all instruments of national power: diplomatic, information, military, and economic.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Multi Domain Operations New 

Convergence within SOCOM – A Bottom-Up Approach to Multi Domain Operations

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This paper argues the DoD should apply the SOF construct of earned trust and interpersonal relationships in order to be successful in future Multi Domain Operations. The author describes how intelligently and appropriately pushing decision making abilities to the lowest possible level will mitigate the communication challenges that will be prevalent in future conflict.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
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Human-led Machine Learning & Advanced Threats: Case Method Inquiry and Visual Analytics Applied to COVID-19

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In a pervasive and complex information environment, analytics are vital to understanding advanced threats. As we rely more on machine-learnt results, asking the right questions and visualizing deep analysis are key to grasping and solving problems. These skills are also vital 21st century leadership tools that can forge a common focus among otherwise stove-piped specialists.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents an urgent threat that requires both scientific understanding and decisive leadership. The cause of the disease is SARS CoV-2, a mutating virus that thrives in conditions difficult to control at scale. To counter this threat, this article demonstrates in detail the potential of human-led case method and machine-provided visual analytics.

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Multi Domain Operations New 

Joint All Domain Effects Convergence: Evolving C2 Teams

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 By: Ernest Nisperos Approximate Reading Time: 25 Minutes Abstract This paper aims to generate a tangible construct to complement the

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
New 

Terahertz Technologies and Future Security Environments

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The terahertz (THz) frequency band is a fascinating and relatively unexplored part of the larger electromagnetic spectrum (EMS). THz can enable users to ‘see-through’ materials and structures and is now widely used in laboratory quality control testing, for non-destructive testing and transmitting information between servers in close proximity. However, because the transmitted signal degrades rapidly in the atmosphere, its application is limited to controlled settings. Soon, technological leaps will enable development of power sources that will prevent THz degradation in the atmosphere and at distance. When this happens, THz will be an exquisite tool to help the United States find and target items of interest. It will allow intelligence professionals and field operators to quickly discriminate targets based on composition, counter adversary concealment or deception techniques, and identify items of interest based on chemical resonance that is visible only through the use of THz imaging

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
New 

Artificial Intelligence in the Operational Information Environment: The Need for Proactive Doctrine

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Joint operations doctrine omits the agency of artificial intelligence (AI) in the operational information environment, which is a problem. This commentary discusses why, and recommends effective changes. Key points are as follows. AI is becoming an autonomous cause of unanticipated effects. Humans are not the most effectively intelligent actors in all environments, yet our doctrine draws lessons from the past rather than anticipating emergent futures. Machines currently excel in experience-based learning and can discover relationships in data that we cannot discern. Humans can intuit, deceive, somewhat control, and manufacture and destroy machines. In time, AI will be able to perform those cognitive, informational and physical functions as well. As out-thought becomes out-fought, we need proactive doctrine now.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Featured New 

Winning Wars of Cognition: Posturing the Air Force for the Tactical Information Fight

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With the return of Great Power Competition, the United States (US), Russia, and China are engaged in a persistent fight within the information environment. Each branch of military service within the US Department of Defense are developing concepts to fight within a contested information environment. Recently, the US Air Force established a new warfighting organization focused on Information Warfare (IW) based on a narrow definition that integrates Cyberspace, Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS), Information, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance operations. Within this article, the author sets out on four objectives: first, to differentiate Information Warfare (IW) at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of war; second, to describe offensive and defensive IW considerations for the US Air Force; third, to describe the relationship between tactical IW and support to the Joint Forces Air Component Commander (JFACC); and fourth, to provide initial recommendations regarding the USAF’s re-organization efforts.

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New 

Air Force Decision Making Training

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Dichotomous, black or white, answers are sufficient for initial qualification training, but are rarely the case in the real time battlespace. Just as the United States Air Force (USAF) changed its training philosophy after Vietnam, the USAF must update the current real time battlespace decision-making education to the Recognition Primed Decision-Making (RPDM) model and deliberately train its personnel in situations that require rapid decision making.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Commentary New 

Defining The Line: Why The Department of Defense Should Reconsider United States Space Command’s Area Of Responsibility

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In announcing the reestablishment of United States Space Command (USSPACECOM), the geographic combatant command also announced a new area of responsibility (AOR) for its warfighting domain. Typically, publication of a geographic combatant command’s AOR is routine, but, due to unique considerations in space law, USSPACECOM’s AOR is unprecedented. A reexamination of the AOR by USSPACECOM may avoid inadvertent, disadvantageous consequences, including the formation of international law.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Featured New 

The Role of the Human in Systems of Systems: Example of the French Future Combat Air System

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France is committed to design a Future Combat Air System (FCAS) relying on an architecture of networks, meshing inhabited and unmanned platforms within a System of Systems and fitting fully into the Man-Unmanned Aircraft teaming paradigm. Artificial intelligence (AI), Big Data Analytics, cloud computing and cyber-security are the four digital technologies at the heart of the digital transformation of our Air Force. All of this raises the question of the role of the Human in such a complex System of Systems.

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OTH, emerging security threats
Featured New 

Streamlining and Revitalizing the US Hypersonic Weapon Investment Strategy

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The current DoD hypersonic weapon investment strategy is untenable over the next three to four years which will widen the capability gap with Russia and China.  The investment strategy needs to be streamlined based on acquisition, test, and fiscal realities to field a hypersonic weapon by 2023.  In order to enable success, the DoD should begin to consolidate the hypersonic weapon efforts to one per service to help alleviate budgets, focus requirements, and reduce competition at test facilities.

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Featured 

Strategic Rationale for Deep Space Operations

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Authors Jefferson, Hans, and Wehrle use historical examples and national security to discuss the importance of deep space exploration and the requirement for advanced propulsion systems.

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Commentary 

OTH Commentary: The Future of Space

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In the wake of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launch, OTH sat down with General Raymond, Commander, Air Force Space Command. Preview his interview here.

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Multimedia 

OTH Video Interview with Gen Jay Raymond, Commander Air Force Space Command

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General Jay Raymond discusses space as a warfighting domain and what the historic Falcon Heavy launch means for the military

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Featured 

Orbital Red Tails: The Use of Escort Satellites to Defend National Intelligence Satellites

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Undefended National Intelligence satellites require escort satellites to defend them based on the criticality of their service to national security.

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Air Force will always prioritize air
Featured 

Air Force Culture Is Impeding The Space Mission

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The culture of the Air Force is defined from the mission statement; to fly, fight, and win in air, space, and cyberspace. Air has always been the first domain in the mission and the main focus of the Air Force. Considering this cultural mindset, the other two domains in the mission statement will not receive the attention they need until the culture is changed.

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OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment
Featured 

What Problem is the US Space Force Trying to Solve: Part 2

Over The Horizon 1 Comment

These are the final two problems facing the US when it comes to conflict in space. A Space Force can solve these problems, similar to the USAF in 1947.

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OTH, multi-domain operations, emerging security environment
Featured 

What Problem is a US Space Force Trying to Solve?

Over The Horizon 2 Comments

There are two problems facing the US when it comes to conflict in space. A Space Force can solve these problems, similar to the USAF in 1947.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Featured 

May We Mutate

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The DoD, with all its branches and organizations, has adopted a model of pursuing innovation that creates peripheral spaces for experimentation and development, which has proven effective to an extent. The next steps to becoming inherently and organically innovative require focusing on the internal characteristics of the institution and its various bodies, from both cultural and systemic perspectives, to identify where mutation and adaptability can be incorporated into the smallest component parts. By adopting these measures, innovations can emerge organically from within their unique context, and those developed at the periphery can be adopted more easily and effectively, as adaptation enables more contextually appropriate integration.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Featured 

The 21st Century Scramble for Africa

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The 2017 National Security Strategy states that the United States is in a great power competition with China and Russia that spans the globe. China and Russia have been actively promoting their national interests in Africa and competing with the United States’ vision for the continent. The following analysis will examine China and Russia’s activities in Africa and explain why the United States should be concerned with their increased influence.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain operations
Featured 

The 6th Warfighting Domain

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From the end of the 20th into the 21st century, the line between military operations and daily civilian activities began to blur as operations increasingly came to rely on the space and cyberspace domains. Thus, new possibilities for reaching nonmilitary personnel in warfare were created. In 1991, the Gulf War highlighted the effectiveness of precision navigation and strike, as enabled by space assets. Now, the space domain enables combined arms integration across land, sea, and air. Working in concert with space, the cyberspace domain exponentially increases global connectivity and global reach. The current battlespace is so globally connected that civilian populations are held at risk, and the lines between civilian and military activity are ceasing to exist. War is increasingly taking on a different form and shifting from physical to virtual as the way to achieve victory.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Featured 

The Future of Fake News

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Today, we have a new name to an old face: fake news. It seduces us for a variety of reasons: authority bias (considering information to be correct if given by an authoritative figure or organization), the third-person effect (perceiving ourselves as less likely to be swayed by the mass media or our own biases), confirmation bias (tending to look for information confirming our own preconceptions), etc. However, two recent developments, enabled by failing academic standards and artificial intelligence, are making it even easier to succumb to . . . while fake news continues its literal warpath, it is critical to look out for research misconduct and deepfakes.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Featured 

More Than Kinetic Effects: Globally Integrated Operations in the Information Environment

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  By Thomas A. Drohan Approximate Reading Time: 5 Minutes A recent YouTube video features Chief of Staff of the

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Featured 

Great Power Competition in the Western Hemisphere

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The 2017 National Security Strategy states that the United States is in great power competition with China and Russia that spans the world. China and Russia do not acknowledge the Monroe Doctrine’s assertion that the Western Hemisphere is the United States’ unchallenged sphere of influence and have been actively promoting their interests in the region. The following analysis will examine China and Russia’s activities in the Western Hemisphere in order to paint a picture of the breadth of influence operations that are being undertaken.

The United States must rebuild relationships with its allies and partners in the Western Hemisphere to mutually safeguard and protect the region. The problem should be framed as a common threat to regional stability and the United States should cooperate with its allies and partners on a peer-to-peer basis. The United States needs to be conscious of its stigma in Latin America as an imperial power that attempts to dictate foreign policy to others. The United States should strive to articulate why it offers the best model for future development and why China and Russia are harmful for the region.

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OTH, Emerging Security Environment, Multi-Domain Operations
Multi Domain Operations 

User-Centered Design is Critical to the Success of Multi-Domain Operations

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By: Dr. Kristen K. Liggett and Dr. Gina F. Thomas Estimated Read Time: 11 minutes Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) is the

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Leading the Waveform: Evolving Spectrum Leadership for Future Wars

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Electromagnetic spectrum operations (EMSO) incorporate a vast array of capabilities from space control to cyberspace operations, as well as the atmospheric effects traditionally known as electronic warfare (EW). These capabilities require the development of experts and leaders that integrate each niche mission set into robust EMSO that support multi-domain operations. Brig Gen Gaedecke stated that “the Air Force should deliberately refocus efforts on electronic warfare and the EMS as a whole.” This renewed focus must begin with the development of EMS leadership from tactical to senior levels to effectively advocate for solutions. Recognizing the EMS as a domain enables the joint force by highlighting its need for expertise, which then supports the critical problem solving and tactics development required to compete in future conflicts.

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Multi Domain Operations 

Electromagnetic Pulse Threats to America’s Electric Grid: Counterpoints to Electric Power Research Institute Positions         

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Editor’s note: This article is part of a supporting engagement with the Electromagnetic Defense Task Force’s efforts in order to

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Multi Domain Operations 

OODA Point: The Requirement for an Airman’s Approach to Operational Design (Part II)

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The ability to make and execute timely and effective decisions has been the foundation of military success for millennia. In the next decade, however, Combined Force Air Component Commanders (CFACC) planning, decision, and execution (PDE) cycles will be confronted by unprecedented challenges emerging in the constantly evolving digital ecosystem. The era of unrivaled access to the electromagnetic spectrum and dominance in multiple domains is rapidly coming to a close for the US airpower. As more and more state and non-state actors gain access to advanced technology, the CFACC’s PDE cycles will transition from an observe, orient, decide, act (OODA) loop to an OODA point. This phenomenon will also have a significant influence on the command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) measures necessary to shape and execute preplanned and emergent decisions in contested operational environments. One way of mitigating these nascent vulnerabilities is to develop a deliberate framework of operational design focused on airpower to provide a proactive form of vision for future CFACCs.

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Multi Domain Operations 

OODA Point: The Requirement for an Airman’s Approach to Operational Design (Part I)

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By: Dr. Jeffrey Reilly Approximate Reading Time: 15 Minutes Abstract: The ability to make and execute timely and effective decisions

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Featured 

Using Prizes to Harness the Power of the Population

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By: Michael Carlson Estimated reading time: 5 minutes The United States (US) Air Force proudly proclaims it has been “breaking

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Featured 

The US National Security Strategy Needs Combined Effects

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By: Tom Drohan Approximate Reading Time: 17 minutes Excerpt: Strategic leaders blend theoretical and applied thinking to realize goals. Competitive strategy is

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Chicken Little’s Quantum Sky

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The term “quantum” has been thrown around in the past few years to mean anything from extremely fast internet to the next wave in computing. The truth is “quantum” can be applied to a variety of technologies; but is all based off the theories of quantum mechanics, or how sub-atomic particles interact and behave. Like Schrödinger’s Cat, this abstract is quantum-based, it both exists and doesn’t exist, until you read it just now.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Tactics of Strategy and Strategy of Tactics

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By: Tom Drohan Approximate Reading Time: 12 minutes Excerpt: Smart competitors are using tactics of strategy to achieve broader-than-military objectives,

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Tackling Tomorrow’s High Value Airborne Assets Anti-Access/Area-Denial Problem – Part Two

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In Part One of a two-part series, the author describes the threat that Anti-Access/Area-Denial weapons pose to current Iron Triad operations. Part Two will discuss solutions that use current technology to overcome future capabilities.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Tackling Tomorrow’s High Value Airborne Assets Anti-Access/Area-Denial Problem – Part One

Over The Horizon 0 Comments , , , ,

In Part One of a two-part series, the author describes the threat that Anti-Access/Area-Denial weapons pose to current Iron Triad operations. Part Two will discuss solutions that use current technology to overcome future capabilities.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Multi Domain Operations 

Multi-Domain Operations: Everyone’s Doing It, Just Not Together

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The military services are continuing to forge the way in MDO, but what progress has been made and will they be able to achieve joint efficiency?

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured Multi Domain Operations 

An Approachable Look at the Human Domain and Why We Should Care

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Within the context of multi-domain operations, the human domain is arguably the most important domain, but it is often the most overlooked. This article proposes implementation of the domain through the use of planning for desired behaviors prior to conflict. It also discusses how Russia views information warfare, their practices, and a case study of its importance in the Crimean Annexation.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Post-INF Treaty: Likely US Military Outcomes and Implications

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What does a Post-INF world look like for the United States? An ensuing arms race is likely, leveraging new tech to counter Russia and China.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Where does Special Operations fit in the Multi-Domain Operations Discussion?

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Understanding Special Operations role in MDO; SOCOM offers an integration model to be replicated, and SOF’s role in a near-peer MDO conflict.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Uniting the Indo-Pacific under the Strategic Airlift Coalition: A Blueprint for Future Security Assurance

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The Pacific Strategic Airlift Coalition (PAC SAC) offers an airpower blueprint for future security assurance in the Indo-Pacific.    

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Information War is the Continuation of Politics by Other Memes: Information, Disinformation, and Social Media as Weapons

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The article will analyze how Russia is using social media to generate and spread disinformation to distort facts and divide the US government and society.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Preparing for the Unpredictable: Accident Management in Great Power Competition

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This article identifies the potential of international accidents across domains and identifies factors decision makers must consider before/after an accident.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Artificial Intelligence: A Non-State Actor’s New Best Friend

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An AI application that is being overlooked in the defense community is the potential for non-state actors to use AI to expand their capabilities at a low-cost.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Featured 

Decision Maneuver: the Next Revolution in Military Affairs

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The next major arena of military competition will likely be information and decision-making, and the U.S. must harness future technology.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Interview 

Designing for the Future of Defense and Security (Interview Part 4)

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This is Part 4 of a 4-part series interview between IBM and the JSOU SOF Design and Innovation Program Director, Ben Zweibelson.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Interview 

Designing for the Future of Defense and Security (Interview Part 3)

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This is Part 3 of a 4-part series interview between IBM and the Joint Special Operations University’s (JSOU) SOF Design and Innovation Program Director, Ben Zweibelson.

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OTH, emerging security environment, multi-domain
Interview 

Designing for the Future of Defense and Security (Interview Part 2)

Over The Horizon 0 Comments , , , , , , ,

This is Part 2 of a 4-part series interview between IBM and the JSOU SOF Design and Innovation Program Director, Ben Zweibelson

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