The Arctic, long considered an untouched frontier, is becoming a flashpoint for geopolitical competition, with fishing rights emerging as a critical area of contention. As receding ice opens new waters for commercial activity, the issue of overfishing, particularly by Chinese fleets, poses significant ecological, economic, and security threats. The rapid expansion of China’s distant-water fishing industry in Arctic-adjacent regions has amplified concerns over resource depletion, environmental damage, and the erosion of sovereignty among Arctic nations.

China’s Arctic Ambitions

As published in the 2018 white paper China’s Arctic Policy, China has self-declared its status as a “near-Arctic state” with ambitions to play a significant role in the region’s future. China has articulated its advocacy for conservation, rational use, and adherence to international agreements like UNCLOS. The Policy states their support in creating an Arctic fisheries management organization, conducting research and exploratory fishing, and fostering cooperation with Arctic coastal states to balance resource use and ecosystem protection. However, the actions of China’s distant-water fishing (DWF) fleet suggest a more expansionist approach that contradicts these stated policies. China’s DWF fleet, the largest in the world, comprises over 3,000 vessels and is a state-supported network that operates far beyond China’s coastal waters. Although many of the vessels are privately owned, they are coordinated by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and receive substantial government subsidies, which enables broad geographic reach and sustained operations across distant oceans, including the Arctic.

China’s DWF fleet’s history of operating in foreign exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and international waters raises concerns about its potential future operations in Arctic waters. While China currently lacks a direct fishing presence in the Arctic, expanding its fleet into adjacent areas could be a precursor to more active involvement. The Arctic’s rich marine biodiversity and economic potential make it a likely target for Chinese fishing interests in the near future.

China’s Involvement

China is a signatory to the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement (CAOFA), which prohibits any country from fishing in the high seas portion of the central Arctic Ocean until a joint scientific program can ensure the sustainability of the potential fisheries. Currently, there are no Chinese fishing vessels in the Arctic; however, China continues to play a role in processing Alaskan seafood and employing workers in Greenland.

While the stated policy is framed as cooperative, its aggressive fishing practices tell a different story. Its track record in other regions suggests a willingness to disregard international agreements when it serves their interests. China’s involvement in Arctic-adjacent fisheries has already led to concerns over stock depletion and illegal fishing activities. Chinese DWF vessels have been linked to overfishing in the North Pacific and Antarctic waters. Similar behavior in Arctic waters could destabilize local ecosystems and undermine existing regulatory frameworks.

China’s DWF has expanded its reach into Arctic and sub-Arctic waters, targeting fish stocks that are crucial to the ecosystems and economies of Arctic nations. China’s fishing practices in international waters adjacent to the Arctic, including illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, have led to significant stock depletion in other regions and could pose a threat to Arctic marine biodiversity. The growing presence of Chinese vessels also raises concerns about enforcement, as monitoring vast and remote Arctic waters challenges the capacity of coastal states.

The Ecological Impact of Overfishing

The Arctic Ocean is experiencing significant ecological shifts due to climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures, changes in regional oceanography, and the decline of permanent sea ice are altering the composition of marine ecosystems. Ocean acidification, driven by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, is another pressing issue. The Arctic Ocean is warming and acidifying faster than most other regions, affecting the distributions and productivity of key species such as Arctic cod, red king crab, and tanner crab. These species play vital roles in the ecosystem, supporting predators like seals, seabirds, and polar bears.

As a greater portion of the central Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free for longer periods, commercial fishing opportunities are likely to increase. Approximately 15% of the world’s marine fisheries are caught in the Subarctic and Arctic, primarily from large commercial fisheries in regions such as the Barents Sea, the Central North Atlantic, and the Bering Sea. In contrast, the interior Arctic shelves have supported smaller subsistence fisheries. However, the warming waters are causing species to shift northward, increasing the likelihood of commercial expansion into previously untouched areas.

Economic and Sovereignty Concerns

Sustainable fishing is an economic lifeline and a cultural cornerstone for Arctic nations like Norway, Iceland, and Canada. China’s incursion into Arctic fisheries undermines local industries and threatens long-term financial stability. IUU fishing also creates economic disparity, as Chinese vessels exploit resources without adhering to international agreements or local regulations. IUU fishing undermines local economies and erodes sovereignty. Chinese vessels in Arctic waters could create flashpoints over fishing rights, particularly in contested areas.

The Arctic’s ecosystems are not only crucial for biodiversity but also for the subsistence lifestyles of Indigenous peoples. Indigenous communities rely on these ecosystems for traditional hunting, fishing, and gathering practices, which are deeply intertwined with their cultural heritage and livelihoods. Their subsistence activities are directly threatened by overfishing and environmental degradation, particularly from external actors like China.

Indigenous peoples hold significant influence in Arctic governance through their permanent participant seats on the Arctic Council. These seats, held by organizations such as the Inuit Circumpolar Council and the Saami Council, allow Indigenous voices to shape discussions on sustainable development, resource management, and environmental protection. This influence is a critical counterbalance to external pressures, such as Chinese fishing activities. Indigenous representatives have consistently emphasized the importance of preserving the Arctic’s ecosystems, advocating for stringent regulations to protect their way of life and asserting their rights in the face of foreign encroachment.

The Arctic Council’s recognition of Indigenous groups showcases their pivotal role in shaping policies that prioritize sustainability and sovereignty. This dynamic adds weight to the resistance against China’s potential expansion into Arctic fisheries, highlighting the integral role of Indigenous communities in safeguarding the region’s ecological and economic stability.

Geopolitical Implications

China’s fishing practices must be viewed within the broader context of its geopolitical strategy. By expanding its presence in Arctic fisheries, China not only secures access to valuable resources but also increases its leverage in regional governance. This strategy aligns with China’s broader approach to maritime power projection.

Russia, the largest Arctic territory, has cooperated with China on Arctic energy and trade projects, providing Beijing access to critical Arctic routes. While Russia’s fishing interests align with Arctic nations, its partnership with China creates a complex dynamic in which Chinese overfishing could indirectly benefit Russian strategic goals by destabilizing Western Arctic nations.

International Response

Addressing the issue of overfishing in the Arctic requires coordinated international action. Existing frameworks, such as the Arctic Council and the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement, provide mechanisms for dialogue and regulation; however, enforcement remains a significant challenge. Arctic nations must strengthen surveillance, enhance cooperation on IUU fishing, and pressure China to adhere to sustainable practices.

National governments have also taken proactive measures to protect Arctic ecosystems. For instance, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) implemented the Arctic Fishery Management Plan (FMP) in 2009 to address concerns over unregulated commercial fishing in U.S. waters off Alaska. The Arctic FMP prohibits commercial fishing in the Arctic Management Area and requires scientific research to ensure sustainable fishery practices.

Additionally, technological innovations, such as satellite monitoring and autonomous marine surveillance systems, can improve the detection of illegal fishing activities. The investment of Arctic nations and their allies in these capabilities will be crucial in countering overfishing and protecting marine biodiversity.

Conclusion

China’s growing influence and unsustainable fishing practices threaten the delicate balance of Arctic ecosystems, undermining regional economies and raising sovereignty concerns. As Arctic nations confront this challenge, they must strike a balance between ecological preservation and geopolitical strategy, ensuring the region’s resources are protected for future generations. The fight for Arctic fish is about more than seafood; it is a battle for environmental sustainability, economic security, and geopolitical stability in one of the world’s most critical frontiers.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Air Force or the U.S. Government.